干旱区研究

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2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 1: 154 - 165

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.14

生态与环境

中国北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变与情景模拟

  • 张莹 ,
  • 赵媛媛 ,
  • 刘如龙 ,
  • 王岳 ,
  • 丁国栋
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  • 1.北京林业大学水土保持学院，水土保持国家林业局重点实验室，北京 100083
    2.内蒙古财经大学资源与环境经济学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010070
张莹（1999-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事荒漠化防治研究. E-mail: 2770981924@qq.com
赵媛媛. E-mail: yuanyuan0402@bjfu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2024-07-14

  修回日期: 2024-09-18

  网络出版日期: 2025-01-17

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(U23A201688)

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Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

  • ZHANG Ying ,
  • ZHAO Yuanyuan ,
  • LIU Rulong ,
  • WANG Yue ,
  • DING Guodong
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  • 1. Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation, State Forestry Administration, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    2. School of Resources and Environmental Economics, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, Inner Mongolia, China

Received date: 2024-07-14

  Revised date: 2024-09-18

  Online published: 2025-01-17

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摘要

探究脆弱区生境质量变化过程及未来情景格局对于研究区生态环境科学保护具有重要意义。本研究基于土地利用数据、FLUS-InVEST模型及空间自相关方法，分析中国北方农牧交错带2000—2020年生境质量时空格局，并对2040年生境质量进行多情景模拟。结果表明：（1） 草地是研究区的主要土地类型，占比超过41%。2000—2020年研究区耕地变化最为显著，面积减少10157 km2，林地和建设用地面积有所增加。（2） 研究区东南边界生境质量相对较高；2000—2020年平均生境质量变化不大，但生境质量较低等级和较高等级的面积分别增加2281 km2和1375 km2，退化度较高的研究区则呈现为点状集中分布在部分建设用地上。（3） 2040年各情景下生境质量呈现出向好趋势，但生态保护情景下生境质量提升最为显著，较高等级面积较2020年增加2514 km2。建议未来土地利用规划和生态环境保护过程中，需重点关注内蒙古东南部、河北北部等生境质量低的区域。

关键词： 生境质量; 北方农牧交错带; 土地利用; 时空格局

本文引用格式

张莹 , 赵媛媛 , 刘如龙 , 王岳 , 丁国栋 . 中国北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变与情景模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(1) : 154 -165 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.14

Abstract

The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a typical ecologically vulnerable region. It is important to explore the spatiotemporal change in habitat quality for the scientific protection of the ecology and environment. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of habitat quality during the period 2000-2020, and simulated the future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios until 2040, based on the land-use data, FLUS-InVEST model, and spatial autocorrelation method. The results showed that (1) Grassland was the main land-use type in the region, accounting for more than 41% of land use. The cultivated land area accounted for more than 32% and the forest land area accounted for more than 16%. During the 2000-2020 period, the cultivated land changed the most, decreasin by 10157 km2, where the unused land changed the least with an area reduction of 771 km2. The areas of grassland and construction land had increased. (2) The habitat quality in the southeast boundary of the region was relatively high. From 2000 to 2020, the average habitat quality index changed from 0.498 to 0.494, indicating a slight decrease. The area with low habitat quality increased by 2281 km2 and that with high grade habitat increased by 1375 km2. The areas with a high degree of degradation showed a point distribution and were mainly concentrated in some construction land. (3) In 2040, the habitat quality is projected to improve in each scenario, but the habitat quality will improve the most in the ecological protection scenario. The area of high grade habitat increased by 2514 km2 relative to that in 2020. In the trend development scenario, the relatively low ecological quality area would be reduced by up to 162625 km2 relative to that in 2020. The area under cultivation, grassland, and unused land under the trend development and economic development scenarios will not change. The area of forest land under the ecological protection scenario was the largest, being 18547 km2 more than that under the trend development scenario. In light of these findings, it is suggested that in future land-use planning and ecological environmental protection, we should focus on the areas with low habitat quality in the southeast of Inner Mongolia and northern of Hebei.

Key words： habitat quality; the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China; land use; spatiotemporal pattern

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