宁夏作为唯一被全境划入“三北”防护林工程的省份，其生态区位极为重要。本文基于宁夏2001—2020年长时间序列植被指数、气象等数据，通过趋势分析、残差分析以及Hurst指数等方法探究了宁夏NDVI时空变化特征及气候和人类活动对其变化的影响，并对宁夏NDVI未来变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：（1） 2001—2020年宁夏NDVI呈波动上升的趋势，年均增长速率为7.6×10^-3；空间分布上具有异质性，整体呈现“北部引黄灌区和南部山区高-中部干旱带低”的特征，并以低植被覆盖（0.2<NDVI≤0.4）为主，占52.33%；（2） 2001—2020年，宁夏全区94.94%的面积NDVI为增加趋势，植被恢复取得明显效果，结合Hurst指数，未来宁夏65.23%的区域植被可能存在退化的潜在风险；（3） 气候变化和人类活动对宁夏NDVI的影响均以正面为主，全区89.49%的区域是在气候变化和人类活动共同作用下引起的NDVI增长；各气候要素中，降水对NDVI变化起主要促进作用；（4） 气候变化和人类活动对全区NDVI的相对贡献率分别为43.79%和56.21%。综上所述，在今后的植被恢复及生态建设中，应积极发挥人类活动在植被覆盖增加中的主导作用，并加强对现有植被的监测和管护，避免其出现退化趋势。

Ningxia as the only province whose entire territory is included in the “Three-North project,” has an extremely important ecological location. This study investigated the temporal-spatial variation in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and quantified the impact of climate variations (CV) and human activities (HA) on NDVI based on various datasets (e.g., NDVI and meteorological dataset) and methods(e.g., trend analysis and residual trend analysis). The trend of future NDVI in the Ningxia was also determined using the Hurst index. Results demonstrated that (1) NDVI fluctuated, showing an increase at a rate of 7.6×10^-3 a^-1 during the study period. The spatial distribution of NDVI was heterogeneous, showing the characteristics of “Yellow River diversion irrigation area and southern mountainous area high and central-arid zone low.” NDVI in the Ningxia generally belonged to low-level vegetation cover (0.2<NDVI≤0.4) with a proportion of >50%. (2) NDVI exhibited an overall increasing trend across 94.94% of the total Ningxia from 2001 to 2020. Furthermore, 65.23% of vegetation of the study area in the future may be at potential risk of degradation. (3) Both CV and HA exerted a positive effect on the amelioration of NDVI, and increases in NDVI in 89.49% of the total Ningxia were controlled by the interactive effect of CV and HA. Among the climate factors, precipitation played a major role in promoting the change of NDVI. (4) The relative contribution rates of CV and HA to changes in NDVI were 43.79% and 56.21%, respectively. Overall, in future programs on vegetation restoration and ecological construction, the primary role of human activities in increasing vegetation cover should be actively exploited, and monitoring and management of the existing vegetation should be strengthened to avoid its degradation trend.