气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测
收稿日期: 2024-04-01
修回日期: 2024-07-13
网络出版日期: 2024-10-14
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(31860197);青藏高原东北边缘云冷杉火烧迹地森林演替动态及演替机理研究(03619078)
Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Pinus bungeana in China under the background of climate change
Received date: 2024-04-01
Revised date: 2024-07-13
Online published: 2024-10-14
研究旨在预测白皮松潜在适生区分布及气候变化对其的影响，明确其未来适宜的分布范围，为白皮松保护和其在生态工程建设中的应用提供参考。基于白皮松83个野生分布点及气候因子数据，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件，模拟白皮松当前和未来3种（2080—2100年，低温室气体排放情景、中温室气体排放情景和高温室气体排放情景）气候变化情景（SSP126、SSP370、SSP585）下的潜在适生区分布。MaxEnt模型模拟结果AUC（受试者工作特征曲线下面积值）值均>0.973，预测结果精度较高。当前气候条件下，白皮松的潜在适生区主要分布在陕西省、山西省南部、甘肃省东南部、河南省和湖北省西北部等地，总面积约74.5×104 km2，未来气候变化背景下，核心适生区面积均有不同程度的缩减，温度为白皮松潜在适生区分布的主限制因子；中、低温室气体排放情景下，白皮松潜在适生区分布的限制因子仍以温度为主；高温室气体排放情景下，全球温度升高加快，降雨量成为影响白皮松适生区分布的主要限制因子，白皮松适生区质心向东偏移，尤其在温室气体高排放浓度下更敏感，迁移距离更远。本文结合白皮松当前和未来潜在适生区的变化，提出了对白皮松保护的建议，且对利用白皮松进行生态工程建设提供参考价值。
关键词： 最大熵（MaxEnt）模型; 白皮松; 气候变化; 潜在分布区; 中国
樊玉科 , 任菊 , 王润龙 , 周栋栋 , 潘自凯 , 张晓玮 , 周晓雷 . 气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024 , 41(10) : 1719 -1730 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.10
This study was conducted to predict the distribution of potential suitable area and the impact of climate change and to determine the appropriate distribution range in the future, which could provide a reference for the protection of Pinus bungeana and its utilization in ecological engineering construction. Based on 83 wild distribution sites of P. bungeana and climate factor data, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential suitable zone distribution of P. bungeana under the present and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) (2080-2100, low-level, medium-level, and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios). In the MaxEnt model simulation, the AUC (area value under the subject operating characteristic curve) was >0.973, and the prediction results were highly accurate. Under the present climate conditions, the potential suitable areas of P. bungeana were primarily distributed in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi Province, southeastern Gansu Province, northwestern Henan Province, and northwestern Hubei Province, with a total area of approximately 74.5×104 km2, under the background of future climate change. The core suitable distribution areas were reduced to different degrees, with temperature being the primary limiting factor for the distribution of the potential growth zones of P. bungeana. Under low and medium greenhouse gas emission scenarios, temperature still remained the limiting factor for the distribution of the potential growth zones of P. bungeana. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario, the global temperature increased faster, and rainfall was the major limiting factor affecting the distribution of the suitable area of P. bungeana. The centroid of the suitable area of P. bungeana shifted eastward, especially being more sensitive under the high emission concentration of greenhouse gases, and the migration distance was farther. This study proposes the protection of P. bungeana, and the results provide a reference for ecological engineering construction using P. bungeana.
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