研究土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务的影响可为改善区域生态环境提供科学依据，然而以往的研究多关注历史时期的生态系统服务变化，缺少对未来情景下生态系统服务的预测及其权衡协同关系的分析。因此，本研究以宁夏地区为例，采用PLUS模型模拟了未来自然情景、耕地保护情景以及生态保护情景下的土地利用状况，并基于InVEST模型量化了不同土地利用类型下的碳储存、土壤保持、产水以及粮食生产四种生态系统服务，并在不同空间尺度上对生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系进行了研究。结果表明：未来三种情景下的产水量较现状年份减少，土壤保持量和固碳量在生态保护情景下最大，分别为7.98×10⁷ t和4.72×10⁸ t，粮食产量在耕地保护情景下最大，达到了1.52×10⁷ t；从全省尺度上来看，仅固碳和土壤保持服务之间表现出较高的协同关系，但在区域尺度和县区尺度下，产水和固碳服务之间的协同关系也较为显著。

Ningxia is an important region in Northwest China. Thus, it is imperative to study land use change and its impact on ecosystem services to improve the ecological environment of Ningxia and put forward environmental protection measures for the future. However, previous studies have primarily focused on the changes in the ecosystem services during historical periods but lacked a prediction of the ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergistic relationships under future scenarios. Therefore, this study simulated the land use status under three future scenarios, quantified the four ecosystem services of carbon storage, soil conservation, water yield, and grain yield under the different land use types, and ascertained their trade-offs and synergies at various spatial scales. The main conclusions are as follows: in the future, the water yield of the three scenarios was lower than that of the current year, and the soil conservation and carbon storage were the largest in the ecological protection scenario, reaching 7.98×10⁷ and 4.72×10⁷ tons, respectively. In contrast, the grain yield was the largest in the farmland protection scenario, reaching 1.52×10⁷ tons. The trade-off relationship between ecosystem services mainly occurred between the regulating and supplying services and the synergy relationship between the regulating services. At the provincial scale, only carbon storage and soil conservation services demonstrated a high synergistic relationship; at the regional and county scales, the synergy between water yield and carbon storage services was also remarkable.