人类活动是土地利用变化的主要驱动因素，土地利用/覆盖变化通过影响陆地生态系统的结构和功能间接影响生态服务价值。本文基于土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析了2000—2020年祁连山地区土地利用变化特征，应用InVEST模型估算了祁连山地区生态系统的碳储量，结合复利现值公式估算了各时期碳储量经济价值。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年草地和未利用地是祁连山地区的主要土地利用类型，占土地利用类型总面积80%以上，且两者之间转换最为显著。因人类活动加剧和城市化进程的推进，祁连山地区林地和未利用地面积减少，其他地类面积增加；（2） 由于该地适宜的地理环境、植被保护力度的加强与人工管理的作用，2000—2020年祁连山地区碳储量增加44.26×10⁴ t，并呈“西北低，东南高”的空间分布特征，与土地利用类型分布显著相关。其中，耕地、草地和水域碳储量增加73.1×10⁴ t，林地和未利用地碳储量减少28.8×10⁴ t；（3） 2000—2020年祁连山地区碳储量经济价值由2325.9×10⁶元增加至3908.8×10⁶元，增量为1582.9×10⁶元，增长率为68.1%。其中，草地碳储量经济价值20 a间增加了851.8×10⁶元，增长率为71.5%，成为该地区碳储量经济价值增加的主要驱动力。祁连山地区碳储量呈增加趋势，未来相关部门在延续先前管理方案的同时，也要警惕当前气候变化对碳储量的影响。研究结果可为区域制定优化土地利用目标、推动可持续发展和应对全球气候变化提供科学依据。

Human activities are the main drivers of land use change, Which indirectly affects the value of ecological services by influencing the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. In this article, We analyze the characteristics of land use change based on a land use transfer matrix and dynamic attitude method. We applied the InVEST model to estimate carbon storage, and we estimated the economic value of carbon storage in each period by combining this value with the compound present value formulas from 2000 to 2020 in the Qilian Mountain region. The results showed that, between 2000 and 2020, grassland and unused land were the main land use types in the Qilian Mountains, accounting for more than 80% of the total area of land, and that the conversion these two land use type was the most obvious conversion. The area of forested and unused land decreased between 2000 and 2020, and the area of other land types increased in the Qilian Mountains due to the intensification of human activities and increased urbanization. From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage was significantly correlated with the distribution of land-use types and showed a spatial distribution of “low in the north-west and high in the south-east”. In addition, carbon storage increased by 44.26×10⁴ t in the Qilian Mountains due to the appropriate geographic environment, the strengthening of vegetation protection, and the efforts of artificial management. the carbon storage in arable land, grassland, and waters increased by 73.1×10⁴ t, while the carbon storage of forest land and unused land decreased by 28.8×10⁴ t. The economic value of carbon storage in the Qilian Mountains from 2000 to 2020 increased from 2325.9×10⁶ yuan to 3908.8×10⁶ yuan, with an increment of 1582.9×10⁶ yuan and a growth rate of 68.1%. In particular, the economic value of grassland carbon storage increased by 851.8×10⁶ yuan over the 20-year period, a growth rate of 71.5%, which was the main driver of the increase in the economic value of carbon storage in the region. Carbon storage is increasing in the Qilian Mountains, and the relevant authorities should continue the previous management schemes while remaining alert to the impact of the climate change on carbon storage in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for setting regional targets for optimizing land use, promoting sustainable development and responding to global climate change.