石羊河流域地处我国西北干旱区和季风区边缘，流域内绿洲农业的快速发展导致水资源开发利用程度极高，生态环境脆弱，未来气候变化加剧了流域水资源的不确定性，对粮食安全与经济发展构成威胁。本文基于观测数据，评估第6次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的11个气候模式在石羊河流域的模拟能力，用等距离累积分布函数法对气候数据进行降尺度，得到该流域的未来气候变化趋势。结果表明：（1）CMIP6模式数据在石羊河流域具有良好的适用性，多模式集合平均数据对石羊河流域降水和气温的模拟性能均优于其他模式。（2）未来不同情景下（2023—2100年），流域内降水量、气温和潜在蒸散发量均呈显著上升趋势，且随着辐射强迫增加而增大。（3）未来时期石羊河流域的干燥度指数整体减小，流域气候趋向暖湿化，且民勤盆地是流域内对气候变化最敏感的地区。研究结果对于石羊河流域应对气候变化、保障经济和农业可持续发展具有重要的参考价值。

Due in large part to global climate change, drought, flood, and high temperature events have increased significantly around the world in recent years. The Shiyang River Basin is in Northwest China and fringes onto a monsoon region, and is consequently, highly sensitive to climate change. The rapid development of oasis agriculture has led to high levels of development and the utilization of water resources in fragile ecological environments. Future climate change will aggravate the uncertainty of water resources in the basin, posing a threat to food security and economic development. Coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) play an important role in the prediction of future climate change and formulation strategies to help devise adjustments accordingly. Based on the observed data in the historical period (1985-2014), the simulation capabilities of 11 climate models from the 6th international Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6) in the Shiyang River Basin were evaluated. The equidistant cumulative distribution function method was applied to downscale climate data to obtain the future climate change trend for the basin as presented in this paper. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble has good applicability in the Shiyang River Basin, as it accurately depicts the annual and seasonal distribution characteristics of climate factors, including precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. The model performs well when simulating temperatures, in comparison to precipitation. While multimodel ensemble mean data perform better when simulating precipitation and temperature in the Shiyang River Basin, in comparison with other models. Under different future scenarios (2023-2100), precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in the basin show a significant upward trend and increase with the radiative forcing increase. The late 21 century shows a greater increase in climate factors than the early and middle periods. Compared to the historical period, precipitation in the future could increase by 45.02% in the winter and 0.38% in the summer, and the greatest temperature increases can occur in spring and autumn. In the future, the aridity index of the Shiyang River Basin will decrease overall. The climate of the basin will tend to warm and humidify, with the summer season becoming drier while the other seasons become wetter than those in the historical period. The Minqin Basin located in the lower reaches of the basin is the area most sensitive to climate change. The research results have important reference value as they will help to address future climate change and ensure sustainable economic and agricultural development in the Shiyang River Basin.