基于风险评估的新疆抗虫棉种植分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.02.30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于新疆棉铃虫生物学特性和多年的种群动态趋势,并在收集棉花种植面积、产量、棉花市场价格及棉铃虫防治费用等相关数据的基础上,采用种群模拟模型（CLIMEX模型）并结合随机模拟方法（@RISK软件）,评估不同场景下棉铃虫对新疆棉花产业造成的潜在经济损失。棉铃虫种群模拟表明：随着未来气候变化,新疆棉铃虫的周增长指数（GIw）会增加,棉铃虫越冬蛹羽化的日期明显提前,危害风险可能增加;2种模拟场景结果表明,抗虫棉能有效地降低棉铃虫造成的危害,减少单位面积防治成本。建议新疆相关部门未来可通过种植抗虫棉与害虫综合治理策略（IPM）的有机结合,来减少棉铃虫及次要害虫造成的损失。

关键词: 棉铃虫, CLIMEX, 抗虫棉, IPM, @RISK

Abstract:

The potential economic losses caused by cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa amigera) in different scenarios in the cotton area of the autonomous region of Xinjiang, China, were evaluated. Data were obtained based on the biology and population dynamics of the cotton bollworm in Xinjiang over many years, in addition to cotton planting area, yield, cotton market price and costs of management of cotton bollworm and were analyzed using a population simulation method (CLIMEX model) and a random simulation method (@RISK). The simulation of the population dynamics of the cotton bollworm suggests that the weekly growth index (GIw) of this pest in Xinjiang will increase, and that the dates of emergence of overwintering pupa are clearly advanced. Global warming may exacerbate the damage and economic loss. The @RISK model simulation shows that Bt cotton can effectively suppress the cotton bollworm in this area and reduce the prevention and management costs for this pest per unit area. Our findings indicate that planting of Bt cotton combined with integrated pest management in Xinjiang can reduce the possible economical loss caused by cotton bollworm and secondary pests in the future.

Key words: cotton bollworm, CLIMEX, Bt cotton, IPM, @RISK

王振霖,吕昭智,张鑫,刘永建. 基于风险评估的新疆抗虫棉种植分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(2): 580-588.

WANG Zhenlin,LYU Zhaozhi,ZHANG Xin,LIU Yongjian. Analysis on risk assessment of Bt cotton planting in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(2): 580-588.

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模型参数	最小值	平均值	最大值	备注
棉铃虫适生区棉花的种植面积(S)/10⁴hm²	127.62	153.34	170.22	地方
棉铃虫适生区棉花的种植面积(S)/10⁴hm²	68.72	82.40	91.65	兵团
棉铃虫适生区棉花的年产量(Q₁)/10⁴t	220.62	290.31	336.30	地方
棉铃虫适生区棉花的年产量(Q₁)/10⁴t	147.08	193.54	224.20	兵团
棉铃虫对棉花的危害率(I)^[30]/%	5.00	25.00	32.00	常规棉花
棉铃虫对棉花的危害率(I)^[30]/%	5.00	8.00	15.00	抗虫棉
棉铃虫危害后的产量损失率(R)^[31,32]/%	5.00	17.00	30.00	常规棉花
棉铃虫危害后的产量损失率(R)^[31,32]/%	5.00	7.00	10.00	抗虫棉
棉花市场价格(P_c)/（元·千克^-1）^[33]	5.70	7.25	8.36	-
品质下降时棉花的市场价格(P₂)/（元·千克^-1）	5.70	6.48	7.25	-
单位棉花疫区防治成本(C)/（元·hm^-2）	735	2025	3705	地方棉区栽种常规棉花
	420	1125	1980	兵团棉区栽种常规棉花
	525	1290	3000	地方棉区栽种抗虫棉
	210	570	1350	兵团棉区栽种抗虫棉

种植场景	输出	常规管理			IPM管理
种植场景	输出	最小值	平均值	最大值	最小值	平均值	最大值
常规棉花	产量下降引起的经济损失F₁	37905.79	80671.34	142835.84	25158.63	53842.67	95108.96
	质量下降引起的经济损失F₂	5.98	43.12	102.12	4.04	28.77	67.98
	防治费用F₃	34885.88	70168.70	118012.88	10532.90	20816.60	34524.49
	总经济损失F	84505.05	154948.50	241735.71	40364.12	76314.35	123317.05
抗虫棉	产量下降引起的经济损失F₁	7908.32	12416.05	19236.87	5267.50	8276.60	12863.24
	质量下降引起的经济损失F₂	2.50	17.85	41.61	1.71	11.92	27.89
	防治费用F₃	9026.19	17986.01	32815.57	2065.42	4264.82	7905.52
	总经济损失F	18870.35	30876.36	49558.43	8222.16	12815.31	19635.79