博斯腾湖流域干旱变化趋势及气候影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.05.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 干燥度指数是反应地域干湿状况的一个指标,了解地区的干湿状况对当地农业发展、水资源科学管理及生态环境有着重要的作用。基于博斯腾湖流域5个气象站1970—2016年逐日气象数据,利用Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散量,并将该计算值和降水量之比,得到干燥度指数。运用5 a滑动平均、M-K检验、R/S分析等分析干燥度指数的多年变化特征;通过敏感性分析探讨气象因子对干燥度指数的敏感性。结果表明:博斯腾湖流域平均干燥度指数为13.9,属于干旱地区。1970—2016年博斯腾流域的干燥度指数呈现下降的趋势,未来干燥度指数的变化与历史变化相同。博斯腾流域在四季中冬季的干燥度指数最低,随着年代的变化,干燥度指数不断降低。各气象因子对干燥度指数的敏感性为:最高气温＞相对湿度＞平均风速＞最低气温＞日照时数＞平均气温。

关键词: 干燥度指数, 敏感系数, 博斯腾湖流域

Abstract: Aridity index (AI) is one of the important indices for characterizing a regional aridity/humidity status.It played an important role in developing the local agriculture and improving water resources management and ecological environment.Based on the meteorological data from five meteorological stations from 1970 to 2016 in the Bosten Lake Basin,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration (ET₀),and then the values of aridity index were calculated via ET₀/precipitation.The multi-annual change characteristics of the aridity index were analyzed using the moving average,M-K,R/S analysis,etc.The sensibility of meteorological factors to aridity index was analyzed by sensibility analysis.The results showed that the average aridity index of the Bosten Lake Basin was 13.9,which revealed that the study area was arid.The aridity index of the Bostten Lake Basin during the period from 1970 to 2016 was decreased,and its change trend in the future would be similar as that in history.Seasonally,the aridity index of the Bosten Lake Basin was the lowest in winter,and it would be continuously decreased with the time.The sensitivity of meteorological factors to the aridity index was in an order of maximum temperature>relative humidity>average wind speed>minimum temperature>sunshine duration>average temperature.

Key words: Bosten Lake Basin, aridity index, sensitive coefficient

王媛, 焦黎, 董煜. 博斯腾湖流域干旱变化趋势及气候影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(5): 1102-1108.

WANG Yuan, JIAO Li, DONG Yu. Drought Change Trend and Its Affecting Climatic Factors in the Bosten Lake Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(5): 1102-1108.

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