树轮记录的吕梁山北段1923年以来3—4月平均最高气温变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.03.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于吕梁山北段管涔山地区华北落叶松（Larix principis-rupprechtii）样芯资料，建立树轮宽度标准年表（STD），利用Pearson相关分析方法得出3—4月平均最高气温是研究区树木径向生长的主控气候因子（R=0.509，P<0.05）。借助一阶线性回归方程模拟构建近百年来管涔山地区3—4月平均最高气温的变化过程，同时应用逐一剔除法对重建方程进行交叉检验，验证回归方程的稳定性和可靠性。对重建气温序列温度变化分析可知，管涔山地区过去近百年有两个暖期和三个冷期分布，暖期为1932—1945年和1957—1970年；冷期为1946—1956年，1971—1983年和1993—2010年。基于Morlet小波分析对重建气温序列周期分析可知，存在3~5 a、10~13 a、22~33 a、40~45 a的周期分布特征，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation，ENSO）现象和太阳黑子活动是其周期变化驱动因子。大尺度空间相关分析可知，重建气温序列对俄罗斯中东部、日本北部、中国中东部等大范围地区的温度变化具有很好的空间代表性。研究结果进一步补充和丰富管涔山地区气候资料，同时对森林管理及农牧业发展具有重要的参考意义。

关键词: 华北落叶松, 树轮宽度, 平均最高气温重建, 管涔山

Abstract:

With the established standard chronology of the tree-ring width of Larix principis-rupprechtii in the Guancen Mountain in the northern section of Lvliang Mountain as basis, Pearson correlation analysis concluded that the average maximum temperature from March to April was the main controlling climate factor for the radial growth of trees in the study area (R = 0.509, P < 0.05). First-order linear regression equation was used to simulate and construct the change process of the average maximum temperature in the Guancen Mountains from March to April in the past nearly a century. The reconstructed equation was then cross-checked by the elimination method of leave-one-out test to verify its stability and reliability. Analysis of the temperature changes of the reconstructed temperature series showed that two warm periods and three cold periods in the past nearly a century in the Guancen Mountain area; the warm periods were 1932-1945 and 1957-1970, and the cold periods were 1946-1956, 1971-1983, and 1993-2010. Periodic analysis of the reconstructed temperature series based on Morlet wavelet analysis revealed periodic distribution characteristics of 3~5 a, 10~13 a, 22~33 a, and 40~45 a. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and sunspot activity were the drivers of this periodic variation. Large-scale spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed temperature series had a good spatial representation of temperature changes in large-scale regions such as central and eastern Russia, northern Japan, and central and eastern China. These results have important reference value for forest management and agriculture and animal husbandry development in Guancen Mountain area.

Key words: Larix principis-rupprechtii, tree-ring width, mean maximum temperature reconstruction, Guancen Mountain

王嘉川, 李书恒, 郭伊利, 韩宜洁, 毛忠雷. 树轮记录的吕梁山北段1923年以来3—4月平均最高气温变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(3): 337-348.

WANG Jiachuan, LI Shuheng, GUO Yili, HAN Yijie, MAO Zhonglei. Variation of mean maximum temperature from March to April since 1923 in the northern section of Lvliang Mountain recorded by tree rings[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(3): 337-348.

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特征参数	统计值	特征参数	统计值
采样点海拔	2128~2539 m	序列间的平均相关系数 (R₁)	0.490
样本量(树/芯)	98/196	树木内的平均相关系数(R₂)	0.514
序列长度	1899—2020年	树木间的平均相关系数(R₃)	0.482
公共区间	1955—2020年	信噪比(SNR)	30.299
平均敏感度(MS)	0.213	样本总体解释量 (EPS)	0.936
标准差(SD)	0.302	一阶自相关系数(AC₁)	0.683
子样本信号强度SSS>0.75起始年(样芯数)	1923年(6)