Table of Content

15 January 2026, Volume 43 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

Weather and Climate

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Spatiotemporal changes in atmospheric total water content in Xizang from 1980 to 2024 YU Zhongshui, WANG Meirong, LIU Minghong, GAO Jiajia, Dechendolkar, Geyang, Tashi 2026, 43 (1):  1-12.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.01 Abstract ( 102 )   HTML ( 13 )   PDF (11874KB) ( 70 )   The Second Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau revealed the imbalance between the Asian Water Tower and the warming-wetting tendency of the plateau. Xizang is a critical region sensitive to climate and eco-environmental changes. Therefore, understanding spatiotemporal changes in atmospheric total water content is of great significance for the construction of ecological security barriers and the highland ecology of Xizang. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2024, this study investigates spatiotemporal changes in atmospheric total water content in Xizang using methods including regional averaging, EOF decomposition, the Mann-Kendall test, and linear trend analysis. The results indicate the following: (1) The spatial variation of the annual-mean atmospheric total water content in Xizang is significant, decreasing sharply from the maximum in southeastern Xizang (38.3 mm) to the minimum (2.0 mm) in northwestern Xizang, with the spatial variation in southeastern Xizang being the most intense. (2) According to the results of the EOF decomposition analysis, only the first modes of summer, autumn, and winter atmospheric total water content regional consistent change across Xizang, while. In contrast, the other modes exhibit a spatial inconsistent change. (3) In most regions of Xizang, the atmospheric total water content increases significantly in spring, summer, and autumn. In summer, this increase generally exceeds 0.3 mm per 10 years. (4) The spring-, summer-, autumn-, and annual-mean atmospheric total water contents significantly increase in years 2003, 2006, 2016, and 2006, respectively. These can be interpreted as abrupt climate changes. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatiotemporal distribution of water vapor in the southeastern Tarim Basin DIAO Peng, YANG Liu, ZHANG Ling, ZHOU Xueying 2026, 43 (1):  13-24.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.02 Abstract ( 85 )   HTML ( 14 )   PDF (11847KB) ( 55 )   Water vapor, an important indicator for evaluating precipitation potential, plays a significant role in the scientific development of water resources in arid regions. Therefore, based on the atmospheric water vapor (GPS-PWV) records of three ground-based GPS stations in the southeastern portion of Tarim Basin between 2021 and 2024 (January to December) and hourly water vapor pressure and precipitation records from 73 ground-based meteorological observation stations across the region, an empirical calculation model (W-e) suitable for Tarim Basin local conditions was constructed. The spatiotemporal distribution of water vapor (W-PWV) content and the relationship between precipitation and duration of precipitation were determined. The results show the following: (1) The annual and seasonal high W-PWV areas are located in the plain regions, followed by the desert regions, with the mountainous regions having the lowest W-PWV. (2) For the mountainous regions, W-PWV increases in autumn across all altitudes and decreases in spring below 3000 m and in summer above 3000 m. (3) South of 38.5°N and above 1500 m, the W-PWV variation rate is low and the precipitation conversion rate is high 6 hours before precipitation. (4) For different durations of precipitation, the peak W-PWV in the study area and the mountainous regions were observed 2-3 hours before precipitation. In the plain regions, the peak W-PWV occurs earlier with increasing duration of precipitation, whereas in the desert areas, it occurs later with increasing duration of precipitation. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Projected changes of seasonally frozen ground over the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau FENG Xiaoli, LIU Zhenlei, YAN Jiyun, LI Hongmei, HUANG Yun 2026, 43 (1):  25-36.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.03 Abstract ( 58 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (14575KB) ( 25 )   Based on 22 bias-corrected and downscaled high-resolution simulations from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, this study projects changes in the annual maximum freezing depth, freezing start date, thawing end date, and areal extent of seasonally frozen ground over the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the mid-21st century (2025-2060) and late-21st century (2061-2100). The results show that, across all three scenarios, the annual maximum freezing depth is projected to decrease significantly by 9.8-14.9 cm during the mid-21st century relative to the historical reference period. Concurrently, the freezing start date is projected to delay at a rate of 1-3 days per decade, while the thawing end date to advance at a rate of 2-4 days per decade, with the advance occurring nearly twice as rapidly as the delay. The shortening of the frozen period becomes more pronounced under higher emission scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, changes in seasonally frozen ground remain relatively stable in the late 21st century. Under SSP2-4.5 scenario, the rates of change in maximum freezing depth and freeze-thaw timing resemble those projected for the mid-21st century under SSP1-2.6. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the maximum freezing depth continues to decrease substantially, accompanied by a significant shortening of the frozen period. Across different ecological functional zones, the annual maximum freezing depth of seasonally frozen ground decreases most rapidly in the eastern agricultural area during the mid- and late-21st century under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, whereas the Three River Source Region experiences the fastest rate of decline under SSP5-8.5. Moreover, the frozen peiod shortens most significantly in the Three River Source region across all scenarios. The area of seasonally frozen ground is projected to expand by 14.4×104-19.8×104 km2 in the mid-21st century across all scenarios relative to the historical reference period. This expansion continues into the late-21st century, with further increases of 2.2×104 km2, 8.6×104 km2, and 12.4×104 km2 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, respectively. Overall, seasonally frozen ground in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau will be profoundly affected by future climate change, with the most pronounced reductions in maximum freezing depth and frozen period duration under SSP5-8.5 alongside accelerated permafrost-to-seasonally-frozen-ground conversion, and energy conservation and emission reduction measures can effectively mitigate this degradation trend. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Statistical analysis of 2024 experimental acoustic rainfall enhancement, Jimsar County, Xinjiang WANG Jinzhao, LI Tiejian, CHEN Liang, WANG Xiaogang, DING Mingtao, ZHAO Jie, QIAO Zhen, LI Xiaolong 2026, 43 (1):  37-49.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.04 Abstract ( 65 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (10280KB) ( 27 )   Acoustic rainfall enhancement (ARE) technology employs ground-based high-intensity sound sources to accelerating the coalescence of cloud droplets. This technology offers several operational advantages, including no airspace occupation, flexible operational control, and low operational costs, making it particularly suitable for long-term operations in arid and semi-arid regions. Furthermore, it enables integrated utilization of atmospheric and surface water resources through reservoir storage. From May to August 2024, field experiments were conducted in the Xidalongkou River Basin, Jimsar County, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. An operational site was established and observational instruments were deployed to conduct comparative ARE experiments. Using ground-based precipitation observations from 13 valid operational days and 8 valid control days, an impact area identification algorithm was developed using the double-ratio method and Mann-Whitney U test to statistically analyze the spatial extent and effectiveness of ARE. The results are as follows: (1) The acoustic operations altered the localspatial distribution of rainfall, with enhanced rainfall observed at the sound-emissionsite and downwind areas, an impact area of 91 km2. (2) The rainfall enhancement ratio within the impact area was 58%, using Mann-Whitney U test; P-value=0.008. (3) Duringthe 13 operational days, enhanced rainfall depth of 68.4 mm and enhanced rainfall volume of 6.22×106 m³ were observed, the entire experimental period, a total rainfall volume of 8.21×106 m³ can be enhanced. This study provides empirical evidence and technical reference for implementing Xinjiang water augmentation strategy. However, operational application of this technology requires further validation at larger spatiotemporal scales and in-depth investigation of cloud microphysical processes. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

Land and Water Resources

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Impacts of evapotranspiration variability on the availability and utility of water resources in the Qilian Mountains XIN Huijuan, XU Chong, LI Zongxing, YANG Liqin, WANG Yunying 2026, 43 (1):  50-61.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.05 Abstract ( 65 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (13964KB) ( 20 )   Under the dual contexts of global warming and vegetation greening, clarifying the impacts of evapotranspiration (ET) on water resources in arid regions is of critical importance. Focusing on the Qilian Mountains, this study quantitatively examined the effects of the spatiotemporal dynamics and the ET driving mechanism components—plant transpiration (T) and soil evaporation (E)—on regional availability (WA, WA/Pre) and effectiveness (T/ET, T/Pre) of water resouces from 2000 to 2023. The analysis utilized GLEAM data products, trend analysis, and structural equation modeling. The results showed a significant upward trend in ET (1.58 mm·a−1), primarily driven by increased T (1.79 mm·a−1). The T/ET ratio also increased (0.004 a−1), indicating improved effectiveness of water resources. Pre was the dominant environmental factor regulating ET variation, while T was mainly driven by the leaf area index (LAI; total effect 0.90). The T/ET ratio was most responsive to air temperature (Tem; total effect 1.68), which also acted as the dominant factor regulating E (total effect −0.748). Although vegetation restoration, characterized by increased LAI, enhanced effectiveness of water resources by increasing T, the combined effect of decreased precipitation and increased ET resulted in reduced WA, thus decreasing availability of water resources. This study highlights that while the increase in ET—particularly T—improves water resource use efficiency, it also exacerbates water scarcity. Accordingly, optimizing the trade-off between T and E is critical to alleviating this contradiction. These findings offer a scientific basis for ecological restoration and sustainable water resource management in arid regions under climate change. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Source analysis and risk assessment of fluorine and boron in Ruoqiang Oasis groundwater, Xinjiang DENG Bo, ZHOU Jinlong, JIANG Feng, QIANG Haowei 2026, 43 (1):  62-73.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.06 Abstract ( 44 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (10455KB) ( 17 )   Groundwater quality in Ruoqiang County, situated on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert, is critical to sustaining local livelihoods, economic production, ecological stability, and high-quality development. This study analyzed 30 groundwater samples collected from Ruoqiang Oasis from 2023 to 2025 to investigate its hydrochemical characteristics and compositional controlling factors. The absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression model was employed to identify the source of fluoride and boron in the groundwater. The groundwater quality was assessed using the entropy-weighted water quality index. A health risk assessment model was applied to quantify the risks posed to different demographic groups by the fluoride and boron in drinking water. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) Groundwater in the study area is predominantly neutral to weakly alkaline. Fluoride and boron exceedance rates are 61.54% and 82.35% in single-structure phreatic water, and 0.00% and 29.41% in multi-structure phreatic-confined water, respectively. The hydrochemical facies are mainly Cl∙SO4-Na and Cl∙SO4-Na∙Ca, governed by evaporation concentration, rock weathering, and cation exchange. (2) Weathering and dissolution of boron-bearing silicate minerals and fluorite are the major sources of fluoride and boron. The groundwater chemical composition is primarily influenced by leaching and enrichment (71.76%), followed by primary geological conditions (13.32%) and anthropogenic activities (8.43%). (3) The groundwater quality exhibits a deteriorating trend over time, with fluoride posing a substantially higher health risk than boron, particularly to children. Mitigating fluoride concentrations is essential to reducing health risks in the region. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Simulation of suitable habitats for typical plants and quantification of water carrying capacity of vegetation in the wind-sand region of northern China LYU Fangying, ZHAO Yuanyuan, XING Chaolong, GAO Guanglei, DING Guodong 2026, 43 (1):  74-85.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.07 Abstract ( 53 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (8275KB) ( 19 )   The aims of this study were to perform a quantitative analysis of the distribution patterns of suitable habitats for typical sand-fixing plants in the wind-sand region of northern China and the characteristics of vegetation carrying capacity under water resource constraints, to determine the reasonable threshold of planting density, and provide a scientific basis for precise desertification prevention and control. Haloxylon ammodendron and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica were selected as the research objects. We integrated the MaxEnt model with the classical soil-water carrying capacity model for vegetation. By combining soil moisture data from 2008 to 2018 with climate, soil, and topography data, we analyzed the suitable habitats of the two plants and the dominant environmental factors affecting these habitat, and then calculated the maximum carrying capacity of vegetation based on regional water balance. The results showed that: (1) Suitable habitats for H. ammodendron, which occupy approximately 19% of the total study area, are concentrated in the desert grassland. The distribution of H. ammodendron is primarily governed by the precipitation in the coldest quarter and the mean annual temperature. Suitable habitats for P. sylvestris cover 48% of the total study area, with the eastern Horqin Sandy Land and typical steppe zone comprising the core area, and are limited by extreme precipitation in summer and winter, as well as soil rooting conditions. (2) The water-carrying capacity exhibits significant spatial variation: the carrying capacity of H. ammodendron is greater than 10.0×104 trees·km-2 in the desert grassland west of the Yin Mountains, but less than 7.0×104 trees·km-2 in areas such as the western Horqin Sandy Land and the piedmont plain south of the Da Hinggan Mountains. (3) A zoned planting scheme is proposed: the recommended plant spacing for H. ammodendron in the desert steppe zone is 1.5 m×2.0 m; a spacing of 6.5 m×9.5 m is appropriate for P. sylvestris in the typical steppe zone; however, in restricted areas such as the Horqin Sandy Land, the spacing for P. sylvestris should be reduced to 10.5 m×15.0 m, which shows small deviation from practical applications. This research provides quantitative data to support the ecological restoration in the wind-sand region of northern China in accordance with the principles of “determining greening based on water availability” and “matching species to site conditions”. Future research should focus on interspecific water competition mechanisms in mixed plantations. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Soil carbon distribution characteristics and influencing factors in typical desert areas of Urad Rear Banner GUAN Weitao, LI Yongli, WANG Yuan, WANG Changyu, BIAN Peng, ZHOU Wenhui 2026, 43 (1):  86-95.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.08 Abstract ( 56 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (3246KB) ( 19 )   To improve our understanding of the distribution characteristics of soil carbon in the arid desert areas of Northwest China, the typical desert area in the western part of Urad Rear Banner was chosen as the research object. Through a combination of profile investigation, sample collection, and laboratory analysis, the distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon and inorganic carbon content in the region and influencing factors were explored. The overall soil organic carbon content in the region decreased with increasing soil depth, falling from 1.92 g·kg−1 in the 0-20 cm layer to 0.57 g·kg−1 at depths exceeding 1 m, whereas the overall soil inorganic carbon content increased with increasing soil depth, rising from 5.13 g·kg−1 in the 0-20 cm layer to 8.71 g·kg−1 at depths exceeding 1 m. The average inorganic carbon content in each soil layer was several fold greater than the organic carbon content, and the soil inorganic carbon content was 4.31-fold greater than the organic carbon content in the 0-120 cm layer. Soil organic carbon and inorganic carbon content exhibited high variability. Among soil physical and chemical factors, factors excluding available phosphorus and available Kalium exhibited significant or highly significant linear correlations with soil organic and inorganic carbon content. The random forest regression model could explain 25% of the variation in soil organic carbon content and 70% of that in inorganic carbon content. Cation exchange capacity, ammonium nitrogen, silica, silt content, iron oxides, and sand content were identified as significant influencing factors for organic carbon content (all P<0.05), whereas silica, sand content, iron oxides, and silt content were highly significant influencing factors for inorganic carbon content (all P<0.01). This study provides basic data support for research on carbon cycling processes and the evaluation of carbon sink capacity in desert ecosystems. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of soil salinization in the Zhundong Mining Area HE Yangyang, DU Huadong, BI Yinli, LIU Yunlong 2026, 43 (1):  96-107.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.09 Abstract ( 66 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (7722KB) ( 17 )   Open-pit coal mining in arid areas, while disturbing regional hydrological processes, soil physical and chemical environments and vegetation patterns, intensifies the risk of secondary salinization. However, its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms are still poorly understood. This paper takes the Zhundong mining area in Xinjiang, an extremely arid region, as the research object. By using Landsat remote sensing images from 2000 to 2024 and 220 measured soil salinity data, and combining methods such as BP neural network, support vector machine and random forest, multiple salinity inversion models are constructed. The sensitive spectral variables were screened through the variable projection Importance method (VIP) to improve the model accuracy, and the driving effects of climate and human activities on the degree of salinization were explored. The results show that: (1) The VIP-RF model performs best in the complex surface background of extremely arid mining areas. (2) Spatially, the central desert and the northern alluvial plain are mainly non-saline or slightly saline soil, the junction zone is mainly moderately saline, and the northwest and southeastern gravelly deserts and Gobi are concentrated areas of severe salinization. (3) In terms of time, mild salinization was dominant from 2000 to 2010. After the mining area was developed in 2010, the areas of moderate and severe salinization increased by approximately 79% and 84% respectively, while the area of non-saline soil decreased by 62.2%. (4) In terms of driving mechanisms, from 2000 to 2010, it was mainly controlled by natural factors such as climate and topography, while from 2010 to 2024, human activities will gradually become dominant. Comprehensive analysis shows that the integration of spectral variable screening and random forest methods can effectively enhance the accuracy of salinization inversion in arid mining areas, and effectively reveal the evolution law of salinization under the interaction of natural and human factors. It has significant reference value for ecological environment monitoring and sustainable utilization of land resources in arid mining areas. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

Plant Ecology

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A comparison of the flora and species distribution pattern of seed plants in the Turpan-Hami and Barkol-Yiwu Basins, Xinjiang, China YUAN Jingjing, TONG Ting, Madina YEHYA, XING Zhenduo, TAN Dunyan, Jannathan MAMUT 2026, 43 (1):  108-120.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.10 Abstract ( 42 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (4384KB) ( 18 )   This research into the flora and species distribution pattern of seed plants in the Turpan-Hami and Barkol-Yiwu basins provides crucial theoretical information on the origin and evolution of species, the conservation of biodiversity, and the development and utilization of plant resources. The two basins are distinct natural geographic units in the Tuha region of Xinjiang that are separated by the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A comparative analysis on seed plant species between the two basins, including the families and genera identified, floristic geographical elements, and the species distribution pattern, yields the following main results. (1) There is a total of 997 species of seed plants in the Tuha region, belonging to 64 families and 373 genera: 738 species in 60 families and 321 genera in the Turpan-Hami Basin and 729 species in 55 families and 316 genera in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin; the density of species in the Turpan-Hami Basin (5.0×10‒3 species·km‒2) is lower than that in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin (13.0×10‒3 species·km‒2). (2) In the Turpan-Hami Basin, families containing 2-10 species and only one species account for 71.67% of the total families; the proportion of genera with one species accounts for 51.09% of the total genera and the species account for 22.22% of the total species. In the Barkol-Yiwu Basin, families containing 2-10 species and only one species account for 70.91% of the totalfamilies; the proportion of genera with one species accounts for 56.33% of the total genera and the species account for 24.42% of the total species. (3) The ratio of tropical to temperate elements at the family and genus levels in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin is lower than that in the Turpan-Hami Basin; this finding indicates stronger temperate characteristics in the former and more pronounced tropical affinities in the latter, revealing spatial heterogeneity between the two basins. (4) The analysis of species suitability using the optimal ensemble model from the Biomod2 package shows that the Barkol-Yiwu Basin has higher species richness than the Turpan-Hami Basin. Species in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin are mainly concentrated in the central-west of the basin, whereas those in the Turpan-Hami Basin are concentrated in the west of the basin. Mean diurnal temperature range, human influence index factors, and mean annual precipitation are the main factors accounting for the distribution patterns. Thus, in the Tuha region, the flora is relatively rich and the geographical composition of families and genera is predominantly temperate; the species richness is higher in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin than in the Turpan-Hami Basin, and the distribution pattern is characterized by a higher seed plant richness in the Barkol-Yiwu Basin than in the Turpan-Hami Basin. These results provide a scientific basis to guide the conservation and sustainable utilization of wild plant resources in the Tuha region, as well as supporting ecological restoration and construction. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Prediction of the distribution areas for major poisonous weeds in Xinjiang based on a random forest model WANG Haitao, HAN Qifei 2026, 43 (1):  121-133.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.11 Abstract ( 46 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (14073KB) ( 11 )   As one of China’s major pastoral regions, Xinjiang faces significant threats from grassland degradation, particularly poisonous weed proliferation, which adversely affects animal husbandry and ecological stability. Traditional remote sensing techniques encounter limitations in accurately identifying poisonous weed species. Conversely, machine learning models integrating multisource environmental factors offer substantial improvements in prediction accuracy concerning the poisonous weed distribution. This study employed a Random Forest model to analyze ecological drivers and poisonous weed distribution data, aiming to identify the primary environmental variables influencing the spatial patterns of five representative poisonous weed species in Xinjiang. Furthermore, the potential distribution areas of these species were predicted under current (1970-2020) and near-future (2021-2040) climatic conditions based on different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. The model demonstrated high predictive performance, with evaluation metrics, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-score, all exceeding 0.90, confirming its robustness and generalization capability. The key ecological variables influencing poisonous weed distribution include isothermality, temperature seasonality, and elevation. According to the model projections, the current and future potential distribution areas are predominantly located in northern Xinjiang, particularly in Altay, Urumqi, Changji, Tacheng, and Ili. Under the SSP126 scenario, the poisonous weed distribution exhibited relatively stable spatial shifts, with slight northward and southward movements and shorter migration distances. Contrarily, under the SSP245 scenario, increased ecological stress portended greater distributional fluctuations, longer migration distances, and a notable decline in ecosystem stability. This research highlights the importance of integrating ecological and climatic variables with machine learning approaches for effective species distribution modeling. The findings provide valuable insights into the ecological behavior of poisonous weeds and offer a scientific basis for regional grassland management strategies in Xinjiang. By forecasting the spatial responses of poisonous species under varying climate change scenarios, this study supports the development of adaptive management plans to mitigate the ecological and economic effects of poisonous weed encroachment in arid and semi-arid pastoral systems. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dispersal risk of Galinsoga quadriradiata on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate change YANG Zhenyang, ZHANG Defang, WEI Youhai, GUO Liangzhi, CHENG Liang 2026, 43 (1):  134-143.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.12 Abstract ( 51 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (9026KB) ( 13 )   Galinsoga quadriradiata is a widely adapted and rapidly spreading invasive agricultural weed. This study utilizes data on species occurrence and for 10 environmental variables to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for G. quadriradiata on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under current and future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) based on SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. The Biomod2 package was used to construct an ensemble model integrating 12 individual models, with ArcGIS and R used to analyze habitat suitability and centroid migration trajectories. The ensemble model demonstrated excellent predictive performance, with AUC and TSS values of 0.989 and 0.928, respectively. Elevation (elev) and the Human Footprint Index (hf) were identified as the dominant environmental factors influencing species distribution. Under current climatic conditions, G. quadriradiata is mainly distributed in eastern Qinghai, southeastern Gansu, southeastern Sichuan, northwestern Yunnan, southeastern and central Xizang, and southwestern Xinjiang. The suitable habitat area of G. quadriradiata is expected to increase significantly under the future climate scenarios explored, with the centroid generally shifting to the southeast. This developmentmay threaten food security and ecological safety on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau; thus, preventive and management measures should be implemented as soon as possible. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Application of machine learning algorithms for estimation of aboveground biomass of Tamarix nebkha DONG Yaqing, SONG Shaoteng, GUO Xiaoqian, ZHAO Yuanjie 2026, 43 (1):  144-155.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.13 Abstract ( 45 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (11625KB) ( 14 )   Tamarix chinensis, a dominant shrub species in arid ecosystems, is characterized by high stress resistance and adaptive growth strategies. It is crucial for stabilizing sand dunes, reducing wind erosion, and facilitating ecological restoration. Consequently, the aboveground biomass (AGB) of Tamarix nebkha is an essential indicator of vegetation status and desertification control in arid regions. The research object of this study was Tamarix nebkha in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. In total, 92 spectral, vegetation, and texture indices were extracted as feature variables from Landsat 8 images. For subsequent variable selection, stepwise regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were employed. Random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and backpropagation neural network (BPNN) models were then constructed to estimate the AGB of Tamarix nebkha. The adaptability and estimation accuracy of different feature selection methods and models were compared, and the applicability of multivariate algorithms for the estimation of Tamarix nebkha AGB were explored. The results indicated that: (1) The variable sets selected by the stepwise regression, LASSO, and XGBoost algorithms were significantly correlated with the AGB of Tamarix nebkha, and the low multicollinearity among variables (VIF<5) confirmed the effectiveness of the algorithms. (2) The models constructed using the LASSO and XGBoost algorithms were significantly more accurate than those constructed using the stepwise method. Among the tested models, the RF model developed using the LASSO algorithm had the best performance (R2=0.73, RMSE=447.63 g·m-2). The incorporation of multivariate combinations substantially enhanced the predictive capability of the models. (3) The LASSO-based RF model estimated the mean AGB of Tamarix nebkha in the lower Tarim River region to be 1733.63 g·m-2 and the total biomass to be approximately 1.71×108 kg. The developed model exhibited high reliability and strong applicability across the regional scale. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for optimizing the selection of remote sensing inversion methods and enhancing the accuracy of AGB estimation in desert shrub ecosystems. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

Ecology and Environment

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Effects of drought on vegetation dynamics at multiple time scales in Shaanxi Province NING Zekai, SONG Cheng, ZHANG Yajun, LI Qi, LI Pei 2026, 43 (1):  156-166.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.14 Abstract ( 54 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (15384KB) ( 28 )   Analyzing and quantifying the spatiotemporal response of vegetation to drought across different time scales are crucial for ecological restoration and disaster prevention. In this study, the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) was calculated using meteorological observations from 85 stations in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020. By combining SPEI with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and ridge regression analysiswere employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of SPEI and NDVI, examine the correlation between them, and quantify the relative contribution of seasonal SPEI to annual NDVI changes. From 2000 to 2020, the drought frequency in Shaanxi Province was highest in spring (42.6%), followed by summer (29.7%), autumn (21.6%), and winter (21.9%). Northern Shaanxi had the highest drought level (29.6%), followed by southern Shaanxi (28.7%) and central Shaanxi (27.9%). Approximately 89.7% of Shaanxi Province exhibited an increasing humidity trend, which was most pronounced in spring, followed by summer, autumn, and winter. The average NDVIs for southern Shaanxi, central Shaanxi, and northern Shaanxi were 0.89, 0.77 and 0.57, respectively, and approximately 88.0% of Shaanxi Province displayed significant vegetation improvements. Approximately 53.2% of Shaanxi Province exhibited no significant positive correlation between SPEI and NDVI, whereas a significant positive correlationwas only observed in 6.9% of the province, mainly concentrated in northern Shaanxi. Non-significant negative correlations were primarily recorded in central Shaanxi. The areas where the relative impactof SPEI in spring, summer, autumn, and winter on annual NDVI changes exceeded 50% accounted for 31.1%, 23.7%, 0.5%, and 15.3% of the province, respectively. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation carbon use efficiency in Xinjiang CHEN Yuqi, XUE Dongjian, LI Zhiyi, YAN Qi, ZHANG Junyuan 2026, 43 (1):  167-175.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.15 Abstract ( 42 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (10181KB) ( 18 )   Research on vegetation carbon use efficiency (CUE) enhances our understanding of regional carbon cycle mechanisms and provides a basis for achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of vegetation CUE in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2023 using MODIS images; meteorological data; and analytical methods including the Hurst exponent, partial correlation analysis, and residual analysis. During 2001-2023, the CUE of vegetation in Xinjiang exhibited a fluctuating and gently decreasing trend, and the high values were mainly distributed in the Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains. Approximately 55.97% of the areas where the current vegetation CUE is decreasing, mainly located in regions such as the Ili River Valley, the periphery of the Junggar Basin, and the oasis areas along the edge of the Tarim Basin, are likely to experience an increase in the future. In most areas of Xinjiang, the vegetation CUE was negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration. The correlations of CUE with temperature and precipitation displayed spatial differences between northern and southern Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, CUE was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, whereas the opposite was found in southern Xinjiang. Moreover, the vegetation CUE had a stronger response to potential evapotranspiration. Approximately 58% of the vegetation CUE changes across the regions were jointly driven by climate change and human activities. The regions where human activities played a promoting role in vegetation CUE were mainly distributed in low-altitude areas and regions with relatively frequent human activities around urban agglomerations. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatiotemporal coupling and coordination of ecosystem services and water-energy-food system security in Xinjiang ZHU Qing, WU Wenjie, WANG Zhiqiang, WANG Tonghao 2026, 43 (1):  176-187.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.16 Abstract ( 47 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (13626KB) ( 41 )   Water, energy, and food are the basic resources supporting the socioeconomic development of arid zones, whereas ecosystem services are important for maintaining the sustainable supply of resources. Exploring the relationship between ecosystem services and the security of water-energy-food (WEF) systems in arid and semi-arid zones is of great significance for maintaining the health of ecosystems, sustainable utilization of resources, and high-quality development of the region. Based on land use, water consumption, and socioeconomic data in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2023, we applied InVEST, real-code accelerated genetic projection tracing, and coupling coordination degree models to measure the ecosystem services and WEF system security, analyze the coupling coordination degree of these variables, and explore the interaction mechanism between the systems using a geo-probe. The overall ecosystem services in Xinjiang were stable during the study period. However, obvious spatial differentiation characteristics were observed for ecosystem services, tending to spread from the oasis area to the surroundings. Water production first increased, decreased, and then increased again. The quality of the habitats was basically stable. Carbon storage slowly increased, whereas soil retention exhibited a fluctuating and decreasing trend. The overall security of the WEF system in the study area is increasing, gradually improving from an unsafe state to a basically safe state, being high in the north and low in the south, with the core area expanding in succession. The coupling and coordination degree of ecosystem services and WEF system security were high in the north and low in the south. The degree of coupling coordination has increased from mildly disordered to marginally coordinated, and the average annual growth rate has gradually slowed. The lack of water resources and spatial mismatch have exacerbated the structural contradiction in the synergistic development of the system, and there is an urgent need to solve the bottleneck of development by improving the efficiency of resource utilization. A significant interactive relationship exists between ecosystem services and WEF system security. Watershed and precipitation are the key factors of ecosystem services affecting WEF system security, and water resources utilization and food production are important factors of WEF system security affecting ecosystem services. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ecological security patterns in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region from the perspective of matching the supply and demand of ecosystem services YE Fanni, FANG Xinzhuo, GONG Bikai 2026, 43 (1):  188-199.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.17 Abstract ( 83 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (21553KB) ( 53 )   The ecological security pattern is an important foundation for enhancing human well-being and maintaining sustainable regional development. Using the ecologically sensitive and ecological transition zone of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia Provinces as the research object, we constructed the research framework of “matching supply and demand-pattern analysis-optimization and restructuring,” used the InVEST model and the comprehensive parameters of supply and demand to assess the dynamic changes of the relationship between supply and demand for ecosystem services, and analyzed the characteristics of ecological security patterns in combination with the circuit theory to propose optimization and restructuring strategies. The supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Shanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region has significant spatial and temporal variations, including an overall oversupply and a local imbalance. From 2000 to 2020, the ecological source area followed the pattern of centralized and continuous distribution from north to south. The number of ecological corridors and ecological pinch points decreased and then increased, and the length of the area of the corridors continued to shrink. The number of ecological barrier points increased by 49, and the area increased by 588.66 km2. Based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecosystem service supply-demand relationship and ecological security patterns in the Shanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region, the proposed ecological security pattern construction and optimization strategy of “one axis and one point” and “two screens and multiple zones” can be used to formulate a regional ecological security pattern and optimization strategy. The proposed ecological security pattern construction and optimization strategy can provide a scientific basis and methodological reference for the formulation of regional ecological protection planning and future sustainable development. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and future of the Mu Us region carbon budget based on land use change ZHANG Xinyu, MA Xuechun, HU Ruichao, LI Pei, WANG Zhoufeng, ZHAO Xiaohong, WANG Xueping, ZHANG Xuanming 2026, 43 (1):  200-210.  doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.18 Abstract ( 66 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (14205KB) ( 15 )   The dynamic responses of carbon storage in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are an understudied aspect of terrestrial carbon cycle research, particularly in ecologically fragile regions subject to intensive human intervention. This study focused on the Mu Us region, a representative ecological restoration zone in northern China, where the mechanisms by which land-use changes influence the carbon budget are unclear. This study used Geodetector to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and changes in the carbon budget (i.e., carbon emissions, carbon storage, and carbon balance) to identify the driving factors that influenced the regional carbon balance in the Mu Us region from 1990 to 2023. The land use and carbon budget were determined under four scenarios: natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. The results are as follows: (1) The area of cropland, forest, and impervious surfaces increased from 1990 to 2023, while the area of bare land decreased. (2) Carbon emissions increased by 1.84×106 t and carbon storage increased by 5.86× 107 t from 1990 to 2023. The carbon balance index greatly exceeded 1, indicating that the Mu Us region functions as a carbon sink. (3) The primary driving factor affecting the carbon balance is potential evapotranspiration, and the interactions between annual average precipitation, slope, potential evapotranspiration, and artificial forest area have a significant impact on the regional carbon balance. (4) Under all four scenarios, by 2035, the area of cropland is projected to expand and carbon storage increases, while carbon emissions are higher under the economic development scenario compared to 2023. The findings of this study support maintaining the significant role of ecological protection barriers in arid and semi-arid regions and achieving low-carbon circular development. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics