Analysis of the change in water level and its influencing factors on Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018
Received date: 2020-05-20
Revised date: 2020-08-19
Online published: 2021-03-05
Using measurements of the water level and runoff into the lake as well as data from meteorological stations of Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018, this paper provides a detailed analysis of the trend in water level change based on ensemble empirical mode decompsition and the water balance model. In addition, this paper uses the climate elasticity method to explore the response of the water level to hydroclimatic factors in different time periods, and then analyzes the complex response of the lake water level to climate change and human activities. The results revealed the following: (1) The lake level shows a significant decreasing trend from 1960 to 2018, which is shown in the four periods as “descending-rising-descending-rising”. (2) Ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis results show that the water level of Bosten Lake has periodic oscillations of 3-4 a and 8-9 a on the interannual scale, and 29-30 a and 33-34 a on the interdecadal scale. (3) The contributions of precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration to runoff to the Kaidu River, Huangshui River, and Yanqi Basin from 1960 to 2018 were approximately 85.1%, 42.1%, and 23.8%, respectively. Other factors contributed approximately 14.9%, 57.9%, and 76.2% to the runoff. (4) The prime reason for the decline in water level in Bosten Lake from 1960 to 1987 was the decrease in runoff into the lake and substantial evaporation of the lake surface. Increase in lake water intake due to the climate change was the main cause of rise in water level from 1988 to 2002. The decrease in runoff into the lake and increase in the amount of lake water are responsible factors for the decreased water level from 2003 to 2014. An increase in lake water intake and strict controls on discharge from 2015 to 2018 were the major reasons for the rising water level in Bosten Lake.
LI Yujiao,CHEN Yaning,ZHANG Qifei,FANG Gonghuan . Analysis of the change in water level and its influencing factors on Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021 , 38(1) : 48 -58 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.06
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