Climate Change

Extreme Precipitation in the Upper Reach of Hanjiang River in Recent 60 Years—A Case Study of Ankang Region

  • JIN Jun-fang ,
  • YIN Shu-yan ,
  • PANG Jiang-li
Expand
  • College of Tourism and Environmental Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, Shaanxi, China

Received date: 2013-04-15

  Revised date: 2013-05-30

  Online published: 2014-11-25

Abstract

Based on the daily precipitations and the annual peak discharge of Ankang region in recent 60 years, this paper analyzed the timing characteristics, the mutation characteristics of the extreme precipitation and the correlations between the precipitation and the flood disasters from 1953 to 2011 in Ankang region, using Mann-Kendall test, percentile threshold, moving average, correlation analysis and trend analysis combined with the precipitation indexes provided by WMO. The results showed that the maximum daily precipitation, the extreme precipitation intensity, the number of the extreme precipitation days and the amount of the extreme precipitations in Ankang region all presented waving rising trends in the past 60 years. The mutation of the maximum daily precipitation appeared in 1974 and significantly increased in 1983; the mutation of the number of the extreme precipitation days appeared in 2002 and significantly increased in 2011; the amount of the extreme precipitations and the extreme precipitation intensity both presented rising trends since 1997 but no mutation occurred. Since 1997, particularly from the beginning of the 20th century, the number of the extreme precipitation days, the amount of the extreme precipitations and the extreme precipitation intensity apparently and significantly increased in Ankang region while the total precipitation were decreasing. Therefore, the potential flooding disasters have called for more attentions in the upper reach of the Hanjiang river in Ankang area to build up the ability to ensure the safety of the people’s life and property and the security of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Cite this article

JIN Jun-fang , YIN Shu-yan , PANG Jiang-li . Extreme Precipitation in the Upper Reach of Hanjiang River in Recent 60 Years—A Case Study of Ankang Region[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2014 , 31(6) : 1061 -1067 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2014.06.12

References

〔1〕 王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征〔J〕.水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.〔Wang Zhifu,Qian Yongfu.Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in China〔J〕.Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):1-9.〕
〔2〕 Karl T R,Knight R W.Secular trends of precipitation amount,frequency,and intensity in the USA〔J〕.Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society,1998,79:231-241.
〔3〕 Stone D A,Weaver A J,Zwiers F W.Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity〔J〕.Atmos Ocean,1999,2:321-347.
〔4〕 Yamamoto R,Sakurai Y.Long-term intensification of extremely he-avy rainfall intensity in recent 100 years〔J〕.World Resource Review,1999,11:271-281.
〔5〕 Frich P,Alexander L V,Della-Marta P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twenticth century〔J〕.Climate Research,2002,19:193-212.
〔6〕 朱利,张万昌.基于径流模拟的汉江上游区水资源对气候变化响应的研究〔J〕.资源科学,2005,27(2):16-22.〔Zhu Li,Zhang Wanchang.Responses of water resources to climatic change in the upper stream of the Hanjiang River basin based on rainfall-runoff simulations〔J〕.Resources Science,2005,27(2):16-22.〕
〔7〕 UNEP.Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability,Summary for Policy-makers and Technical Summary of the IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report〔R〕.London,UK:Cambridge University Press,2001:8-9.
〔8〕 殷淑燕,黄春长.汉江上游近50年降水变化与暴雨洪水发生规律〔J〕.水土保持通报,2012,35(1):19-25.〔Yin Shuyan,Huang Chunchang.Precipitation change and occurrence of rainstorms and floods in upper reaches of Hanjiang river during last 50 years〔J〕.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,35(1):19-25.〕
〔9〕 彭维英,殷淑燕,刘晓玲,等.汉江上游安康市近50年旱涝特征分析〔J〕.江西农业学报,2011,23(5):144-148.〔Peng Weiying,Yin Shuyan,Liu Xiaoling.Analysis of drought flood characteristics in Ankang City located at upper reaches of Hanjiang river in recent 50 years〔J〕.Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2011,23(5):144-148.〕
〔10〕 党红梅,石明生,王显安,等.安康近50年气候变化的初步分析〔J〕. 陕西气象,2006,18(1):16-18.〔Dang Hongmei,Shi Mingsheng,Wang Xian’an.Preliminary analysis of climate change in Ankang City nearly 50 years〔J〕.Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology,2006,18(1):16-18.〕
〔11〕 王娜,孙娴,蔡新玲,等.安康水库蓄水前后上游气候变化特征〔J〕.气象科技,2010,38(5):649-653.〔Wang Na,Sun Xian,Cai Xinling.Characteristics of climate change in Ankang reservoir upstream basin before and after impoundment〔J〕.Meteorological Scienceand Technology,2010,38(5):649-653.〕
〔12〕 臧金丹,张阳生.安康地区降水变化特征及趋势分析〔J〕.地下水,2011,33(2):176-178.〔Zang Jindan,Zhang Yangsheng.Precipitation characteristics and trend change in Ankang Area〔J〕.Underground Water,2011,33(2):176-178.〕
〔13〕 晁居行.对安康水资源综合开发的思考〔J〕.陕西综合经济,2005(3):22-25.〔Chao Juxing.Thinking of water resources comprehensive development in Ankang〔J〕.Shaanxi Comprehensive Economic,2005(3):22-25.〕
〔14〕 徐宗学,张楠.黄河流域近50年降水变化趋势分析〔J〕.地理研究,2006,25(1):27-34.〔Xu Zongxue,Zhang Nan.Long-term trend of precipitation in the Yellow River basin during the past 50 years〔J〕.Geographical Research,2006,25(1):27-34.〕
〔15〕 Hamed K H.Exact distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data〔J〕.Hydrolohy,2009(1):86-94.
〔16〕 孙善宇,徐利岗.宁夏1951—2008年降水量变化特征及趋势分析〔J〕.人民黄河,2011,33(4):24-25.〔Sun Shanyu,Xu Ligang.Analysis of changes about annual precipitation characteristics and trends in Ningxia during 1951-2008〔J〕.Yellow River,2011,33(4):24-25.〕
〔17〕 Zhang Q,Yu C,Xu H T,et al.Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions:A case study of the Tarim river basin,China〔J〕.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2009,24:349-358.
〔18〕 沈伟.1953—2008年新疆北部地区降水量变化趋势分析〔J〕.水资源与水工程学报,2010,35(4):130-134.〔Shen Wei.Trend analysis of precipitation in Xinjiang during 1953-2008〔J〕.Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2010,35(4):130-134.〕
〔19〕 刘叶玲,翟晓丽,郑爱勤.关中盆地降水量变化趋势的Mann-Kendall分析〔J〕.人民黄河,2012,34(2):28-33.〔Liu Yeling,Zhai Xiaoli,Zheng Aiqin.Analysis of precipitation trend in the Guanzhong Basin based on the Mann-Kendall method〔J〕.Yellow River,2012,34(2):28-33.〕
〔20〕 翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化〔J〕.地理学报,2003,58(增刊):1-10.〔Zhai Panmao,Pan Xiaohua.Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th Centure〔J〕.Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(Suppl.):1-10.〕
〔21〕 任国玉,封国林,严中伟.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望〔J〕.气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):337-353.〔Ren Guoyu,Feng Guolin,Yan Zhongwei.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China〔J〕.Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):337-353.〕
〔22〕 殷淑燕,王海燕,黄春长,等.陕南汉江上游历史洪水灾害与气候变化〔J〕.干旱区研究,2010,27(4):522-528.〔Yin Shuyan,Wang Haiyan,Huang Chunchang.Study on historical flood disasters and climate change in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River〔J〕.Arid Zone Research,2010,27(4):522-528.〕
〔23〕 朱前斌.安康“7·18”暴雨洪水分析〔J〕.陕西水利,2011(4):125-126.〔Zhu Qianbin.The analysis about rainstorm and flood in July 18th of Ankang〔J〕.Shaanxi Water Resources,2011(4):125-126.〕
〔24〕 毛成本,杨飞,朱前斌.安康市2011年“9·19”暴雨洪水分析〔J〕.陕西水利,2012(1):23-26.〔Mao Chengben,Yang Fei,Zhu Qianbin.Analysis about rainstorm flood of Ankang city in 2011“9·9”〔J〕.Shaanxi Water Resources,2012(1):23-26.〕
Outlines

/