干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2014 , Vol. 31 >Issue 5: 882 - 890

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2014.05.16

Weather and Climate

Influence of Warming Trend on Predicted Temperature in Winter in Xinjiang

  • MAO Wei-yi ,
  • CHEN Peng-xiang ,
  • BAI Su-qin
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  • Xinjiang Climate Cener, Urumqi 830002, China

Received date: 2014-02-18

  Revised date: 2014-04-02

  Online published: 2014-09-25

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Abstract

Two schemes of original series and filter linear trend were designed using the data of temperature in winter at 33 climatic stations in Xinjiang as the predictands and 108 previous characteristic indexes of circulation as the predictors and considering their linear trends. The running correlation, stepwise regression and ensemble analysis were used to develop the multiple regression prediction models with two different schemes at the 33 stations. The predicted values of temperature of two schemes were compared. The results showed that the both two schemes had a certain predictive capability. In contrast, the prediction of filter linear trend was better than that of original series. Taking the correlation coefficients of independent test as the indicators, the ensemble analysis prediction was obtained. Its effect was superior to that of the scheme of original series. Contrast to the prediction of ensemble analysis from October and November, the running prediction results of temperature in Xinjiang in winter could be improved. The prediction effect of temperature in Xinjiang in winter was improved.

Key words： warming trend; linear trend; running correlation; prediction; temperature in winter; Xinjiang

Cite this article

MAO Wei-yi , CHEN Peng-xiang , BAI Su-qin . Influence of Warming Trend on Predicted Temperature in Winter in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2014 , 31(5) : 882 -890 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2014.05.16

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