Analysis and Prediction of Spring Drought in North Region of the Qinghai Lake
Received date: 2009-12-22
Revised date: 2010-06-02
Online published: 2026-01-09
In this paper, the meteorological data observed by 6 meteorological stations in north region of the Qing-hai Lake are analyzed by using data of monthly precipitation, continuous days without precipitation, moisture con-tent in soil layer of 0-50 cm, etc. during the period from 1979 to 2008, and the formation causes of spring drought are lucubrated from the factors related to spring drought, such as the frequency and intensity of spring drought, climatic and circulation characteristics, air temperature, lake water temperature, etc. The correlation a-nalysis and the multi-factor combination are used to determine the prediction indexes of spring drought with different levels. The results are as follows: (1)Slight drought, moderate drought and serious drought occur every 3-4, 6- 7 and 8-9 years in the study area; (2)The occurring frequency of spring drought is holistically decreased; (3)The occurring frequency of spring drought in the south is higher than that in the north of the study area. The occur-ring frequency of spring drought is the highest, and the intensity of spring drought is the most serious in Gangcha; (4)There is a significant negative correlation between spring drought and monthly precipitation in previous Septem-ber and October, especially in the south. The prediction indexes have been put into the “Study System of Disaster Weather Indexes in the Haibai Region, Qinghai Province”, and they were used in predicting spring drought in 2009.
Key words： spring; drought; climatic characteristics; circulation; prediction index; the Qinghai Lake
MA Xiao-hong , SONG Li-ming , XIE Qi-yu , WEI Yong-lin . Analysis and Prediction of Spring Drought in North Region of the Qinghai Lake[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2010 , 27(5) : 780 -784 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2010.05.012
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