In this paper,Xinjiang is divided into 10 regions for predicting precipitation trend in flood season.After analyzing the indexes of 74 characteristic quantities of atmospheric circulation,4 to 6 characteristic indexes are selected to develop the prediction models of precipitation in 10 regions of Xinjiang in flood season.The results show that precipitations in these 10 regions in flood season are closely related to the previous characteristic indexes of Northern Hemisphere.Among them,the dominant factors are different from different regions and different seasons.All the models pass the confidence test of 0.01,and the average prediction accuracies of the most cases are higher than 60%,especially they are higher than 80% in predicting precipitation in flood season in Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture,Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,north Xinjiang along the Tianshan Mountains and Tianshan mountainous area,and the root mean square errors of these cases vary in a range from 12.3% to 22.3% only.Therefore,the models are applicable in predicting precipitation in these regions in flood season.
WANG Hui
,
TAN Yan-mei
,
MAO Wei-yi
,
AN Sha-zhou
. Application of Indexes of Characteristic Quantities of Atmospheric Circulation in Precipitation Trend Prediction in Xinjiang in Flood Season[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2008
, 25(4)
: 485
-491
.
DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2008.04.005
[1] 施雅风. 中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.[Shi Yafeng.The Assessment of ClimaticShift from Warm-dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China[M].Beijing:Metrology Press,2003.]
[2] 张家宝,邓子风.新疆降水概论[M].北京:气象出版社,1987.[Zhang Jiabao,Deng Zifeng.The Conspectus of Precipitation inXinjiang[M].Beijing:Metrological Press,1987.]
[3] 王绍武. 现代气候学研究进展[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.[Wang Shaowu.Research Advances of Latter-day Climatology[M].Beijing:Metrological Press,2001.]
[4] 施能,朱乾根.北半球大气环流特征量的长期趋势及年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报,1996,19(3):283-289.[Shi Neng,Zhu Qiangen.Secular trends of and interdecadal variation of char-acteristic quantities of atmospheric circulations of the NorthernHemisphere[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteology,1996,19(3):283-289.]
[5] 张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.[Zhang Jiabao,Shi Yuguang.Research ofClimate Change and Climate Prediction in Xinjiang[M].Beijing:Metrological Press,1987.]
[6] 赵兵科,蔡承狭,杨莲梅,等.新疆夏季变湿的大气环流异常特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):434-442.[Zhao Bingke,Cai Chengxia,Yang Lianmei,et al.Atmospheric circulation anom-alies during wetting summer over Xinjiang Region[J].Journal ofGlaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):434-442.]
[7] 王娇,任宜勇.新疆降水与环流场演变研究[J].干旱区研究,2005,22(3):326-331.[Wang Jiao,Ren Yiyong.Study on thechange of precipitation and general circulation in xinjiang[J].Ar-id Zone Research,2005,22(3):326-331.]
[8] 郭江勇,李耀辉.中国西北地区夏季降水的气候特征[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(3):489-494.[Guo Jiangyong,Li Yaohui.Climatic characteristics of summer precipitation in northwesternChina[J].Arid Zone Research,2006,23(3):489-494.]
[9] 王慧,王铁,陈洪武.El-nino和La-nina事件与新疆月气温降水的关系[J].新疆气象,1999,22(4):21-24.[Wang Hui,WangTie,Chen Hongwu.Relationship between El-nino or La-nina e-vents and monthly mean temperature or precipitation[J].XinjiangMeteology,1999,22(4):21-24.]
[10] 谭艳梅,毛炜峄,李新建,等.新疆主要棉区年积温预测模型研究[J].干旱区研究,2005,22(1):259-263.[Tan Yanmei,MaoWeiyi,Li Xinjian,et al.Study on the models of predicting the an-nual accumulated temperature in the main cotton-production re-gions in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2005,22(1):259-263.]
[11] 毛炜峄,艾力.买买提明,陈胜,等.新疆春季沙尘天气与前期月环流特征量的关系[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(2):171-174.[Mao Weiyi,Aili Mamtimin,Chen Sheng,et al.Relation-ship between the dust weathers and the eigenvalues of precedingmonthly atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang in spring[J].AridLand Geography,2005,28(2):171-174.]
