干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 11: 2104 - 2116

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.13

Ecology and Environment

Land use change and future habitat quality evaluation in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River

  • HUANG Zhipu ,
  • WANG Junde ,
  • CHENG Yufei ,
  • ZHOU Haohao ,
  • ZHANG Zhan ,
  • BAO Zhiwei ,
  • YANG Chuanguo
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  • 1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
    2. Gansu Research Institute for Water Conservancy, Lanzhou 730030, Gansu, China
    3. Information Center of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, China
    4. Yellow River Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, China

Received date: 2025-04-15

  Revised date: 2025-10-14

  Online published: 2025-12-13

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Abstract

The Shule River Basin belongs to a typical arid zone oasis-desert ecosystem, with a fragile ecological environment. Scientific regulation of land use is crucial for regional development and ecological protection. Based on land use data obtained from the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images in 2012, 2017, and 2022, combined with the Markov-PLUS model, three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) were set to predict land use in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the basin in 2035 and assess changes in the basin’s habitat quality. The results show that: (1) During the period 2012-2022, the land use in the river basin exhibited a distinct positive transition. Saline-alkali land and unused land displayed a notable declining trend, with their areas decreasing by 484.08 km2 and 654.61 km2 respectively. Over the same period, the areas of wetlands and shrub-covered land increased by 228.69 km2 and 502.33 km2 respectively. (2) The overall habitat quality of the basin was relatively low. From 2012 to 2022, the average habitat quality was 0.2799, with low habitat quality being dominant, accounting for 54.28% of the study area. However, it showed an overall improving trend. (3) Among the three scenarios in 2035, the area of shrubland and wetlands will increase, while the area of saline-alkali land and unused land will continue to decrease. Habitat quality will mainly show a transition from “low level to high level”. The habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario is the optimal, increasing by 7.25% compared with that in 2022. Under the continuous warming and wetting trend in Northwest China, efforts should be made to strengthen the optimal allocation and scientific management of land use.

Key words： land use change; Markov-PLUS model; multi-scenario simulation; habitat quality; Shule River Basin

Cite this article

HUANG Zhipu , WANG Junde , CHENG Yufei , ZHOU Haohao , ZHANG Zhan , BAO Zhiwei , YANG Chuanguo . Land use change and future habitat quality evaluation in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025 , 42(11) : 2104 -2116 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.13

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