Utilizing short-duration heavy precipitation data of 109 stations in Shanxi Province (1981-2023), minute precipitation data of 980 regional stations in past 12 years, and socioeconomic data, this study analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of probability density for short-duration heavy precipitation with different durations and intensity levels through probability density calculations. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and semi-trapezoidal distribution model were employed to conduct disaster risk assessments for two high probability density areas: Yuanqu County and Jincheng Urban District. The results show that: (1) The probability density of the short-duration heavy precipitation of 1 hour and 6 hours has the same distribution characteristics: It is higher in the south than in the north, higher in the eastern and western mountainous areas than in the central basin at the same latitude. (2) Yuanqu County is the region with the maximum probability density for 1-hour rainfall in the ranges of 40 mm≤R(1 h)<60 mm, 80 mm≤R(1 h)<93 mm, and for 6-hour rainfall in the ranges of 110 mm≤R(6 h)<130 mm, 130 mm≤R(6 h)<218 mm; Jincheng Urban Area is the region with the maximum probability density for 1-hour rainfall in the ranges of 20 mm≤R(1 h)<40 mm, 60 mm≤R(1 h)<80 mm, and for 6-hour rainfall in the range of 80 mm≤R(6 h)<110 mm. (3) For the evaluated area, disaster risks are classified into five levels: low risk, sub low risk, medium risk, sub high risk, and high risk. Based on the weight vector of the target layer and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results of the indicator layer for the evaluated area, the maximum membership degrees of Yuanqu County and Jincheng City are calculated to be 0.3195 and 0.7005, respectively, with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results indicating secondary high risk and high risk. The evaluation results are consistent with the disaster investigation findings. (4) The provincial disaster risk zoning indicates that the high-risk areas for short-duration heavy precipitation disasters encompass most of Jincheng City, the central and eastern regions of Changzhi City, the north-central sections of Yuncheng City, southeastern counties and districts of Linfen, Liulin County in Luliang, Xiaodian District in Taiyuan, as well as specific counties and townships within Jinzhong.