Coordinated development and multi-scenario simulation of land use intensity and carbon emissions in Xinjiang
Received date: 2025-03-07
Revised date: 2025-05-21
Online published: 2025-11-24
Exploring the synergistic relationship between land-use intensity and carbon emissions in arid regions with fragile ecological foundations is of practical significance for optimizing the allocation of regional land resources and achieving “dual carbon” goals. Based on land use and energy consumption data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, this study employs a land-use carbon emission accounting model, coordination degree model, FLUS model, and Gray Forecast Model to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation and coordinated development level of land-use intensity and carbon emissions in Xinjiang and areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level. Furthermore, the study simulates evolution trends under four scenarios in 2030. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2020, the land-use intensity index of Xinjiang increased by 3.2, whereas in areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level, it increased by 4.5, indicating a faster growth rate in these areas. (2) From 2000 to 2020, land-use carbon emissions in Xinjiang increased by 1.70×108 t, with more than 95% of the total emissions originating from areas below 1500 m. Moreover, high-emission zones exhibited a significant spillover effect on adjacent low-emission zones. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the coordination coefficient between land-use intensity and carbon emissions in areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level was consistently higher than that of the whole Xinjiang, although this primarily reflected an extensive balance of “high development-high emissions”. (4) Projections for 2030 indicate that under the Ecological Protection Scenario, a better balance between development and reduction in carbon emission could be achieved through the expansion of ecological land. In contrast, the Strategic Development Scenario would yield the largest carbon emission increment, reflecting continued economic reliance on energy consumption. These findings indicate the need for Xinjiang to further integrate economic development with ecological conservation strategies to effectively achieve sustainable development.
Key words： land use; carbon emissions; coordinated development; FLUS model; Xinjiang
GUAN Yiheng , MENG Mei , YANG Songxiao , LI Daqiang . Coordinated development and multi-scenario simulation of land use intensity and carbon emissions in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025 , 42(8) : 1501 -1513 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.13
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