干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 10: 1851 - 1859

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.09

Plant Ecology

Predicting the suitable distribution areas of Panzerina lanata in China under climate change

  • ZHAO Yanfen ,
  • WANG Chuncheng ,
  • PAN Borong
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  • 1. College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
    2. Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, Hunan, China
    3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2025-01-02

  Revised date: 2025-06-16

  Online published: 2025-10-22

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Abstract

Panzerina lanata holds significant medicinal and ecological value, contributing to both human health and ecosystem balance. In this study, to investigate the suitable habitat distribution patterns of this species and its response to future climate change, we employed the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the species’ suitable habitats and their dynamic changes under current and future (2041-2060, 2081-2100) climate change scenarios. The analysis included 86 natural distribution points and 20 environmental variables. We assessed the importance of key environmental factors by combining comprehensive contribution rates with the jackknife method. Additionally, we simulated the dispersal pathways of P. lanata using the least-cost path method using chloroplast haplotype data from 27 populations and distribution model simulation data from different periods. The results were as follows: (1) The primary environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. lanata are the maximum temperature of the warmest month, elevation, precipitation of the wettest month, and temperature seasonality. (2) Under current climate conditions, the potential highly suitable area for P. lanata in China covers approximately 21.04×104 km2, mainly distributed in Ulanqab, Ordos, and eastern Alxa in Inner Mongolia as well as northern Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, and parts of Gansu Province. (3) Under two typical climate scenarios based on concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the future (2081-2100), both total suitable areas and highly suitable areas of P. lanata showed an increasing trend, with the core distribution remaining in the Inner Mongolia. The east-west corridor along the northern fringe of the Mu Us Sandy Land emerged as a crucial dispersal pathway of P. lanata during population migration, with the strongest connectivity between populations in the Alxa Left Banner and Ordos regions.

Key words： Panzerina lanata; climate change; MaxEnt model; potential suitable distribution; dispersal pathway

Cite this article

ZHAO Yanfen , WANG Chuncheng , PAN Borong . Predicting the suitable distribution areas of Panzerina lanata in China under climate change[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025 , 42(10) : 1851 -1859 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.09

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