干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 200-210.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2026.01.18

• Ecology and Environment • Previous Articles    

Spatiotemporal characteristics and future of the Mu Us region carbon budget based on land use change

ZHANG Xinyu1(), MA Xuechun1, HU Ruichao1, LI Pei1,2,3, WANG Zhoufeng1,2,3, ZHAO Xiaohong2,4, WANG Xueping1,2,3(), ZHANG Xuanming1,2,3   

  1. 1. School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of the Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrology and Water Security in Arid Region of Ministry of Water Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
    4. School of Civil Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, Shaanxi, China
  • Received:2025-05-13 Revised:2025-10-27 Online:2026-01-15 Published:2026-01-28
  • Contact: WANG Xueping E-mail:zhang_xy@chd.edu.cn;wangxp@chd.edu.cn

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Abstract:

The dynamic responses of carbon storage in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are an understudied aspect of terrestrial carbon cycle research, particularly in ecologically fragile regions subject to intensive human intervention. This study focused on the Mu Us region, a representative ecological restoration zone in northern China, where the mechanisms by which land-use changes influence the carbon budget are unclear. This study used Geodetector to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and changes in the carbon budget (i.e., carbon emissions, carbon storage, and carbon balance) to identify the driving factors that influenced the regional carbon balance in the Mu Us region from 1990 to 2023. The land use and carbon budget were determined under four scenarios: natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. The results are as follows: (1) The area of cropland, forest, and impervious surfaces increased from 1990 to 2023, while the area of bare land decreased. (2) Carbon emissions increased by 1.84×106 t and carbon storage increased by 5.86× 107 t from 1990 to 2023. The carbon balance index greatly exceeded 1, indicating that the Mu Us region functions as a carbon sink. (3) The primary driving factor affecting the carbon balance is potential evapotranspiration, and the interactions between annual average precipitation, slope, potential evapotranspiration, and artificial forest area have a significant impact on the regional carbon balance. (4) Under all four scenarios, by 2035, the area of cropland is projected to expand and carbon storage increases, while carbon emissions are higher under the economic development scenario compared to 2023. The findings of this study support maintaining the significant role of ecological protection barriers in arid and semi-arid regions and achieving low-carbon circular development.

Key words: carbon budget, land use type, driving factors, Mu Us region, PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model