本文基于水文观测和遥感监测数据,获取近60 a巴尔喀什湖面积、水位变化信息,重建湖泊水量变化时间序列,探明巴尔喀什湖水量变化特征;依据湖泊水量收入（入湖径流、降水）支出（湖面蒸发）建立巴尔喀什湖水量平衡模型,分析巴尔喀什湖水量平衡要素变化特征,定量解析气候变化和人类活动对巴湖水量变化的影响。结果表明：（1） 1961—2020年,巴尔喀什湖水量以1987年为拐点先急剧减少后波动增加;入湖径流变化与湖泊水量变化过程基本一致,年均入湖径流量约为14.04 km³·a^-1;湖区降水以0.28 mm·a^-1的速率波动增加;水体年均蒸发量约17.95 km³·a^-1,其中,1987年最小为16.10 km³,2008年最高达20.30 km³。（2） 过去60 a年,地下水与湖泊互为补充,其中20世纪70年代和80年代地下水补给湖泊水量较多,补给量约为1.91 km³。（3） 在湖区尺度上,入湖流量与巴尔喀什湖水量显著相关,是影响湖泊水量变化的主导因素;在流域尺度上,气候波动对入湖流量长期变化的贡献率为71.67%,人类活动耗水的贡献率为28.33%;1970—1985年卡普恰盖水库蓄水及周边耕地扩张对入湖水量锐减的贡献率达47.47%,人类活动明显加剧了这一时期湖泊水位下降的进程。

Based on hydrological observations and remote-sensing monitoring data, time series and water level of Lake Balkhash in the past 60 years were extracted to reconstruct the Lake Balkhash water level-area-volume capacity curve. Additionally, we explored the characteristics of the Lake Precipitation volume changes, established a water balance model of Lake Balkhash based on water revenue (runoff, precipitation, and groundwater recharge) and expenditure (evaporation and infiltration), and quantitatively analyzed the changes in water balance elements in Lake Balkhash. The interaction between water revenue and expenditure and the influence mechanism was explored based on climate change and human activities over time. Results showed that (1) the water volume of Lake Balkhash decreased sharply at first and then fluctuated from 1961 to 2020. The change process of runoff into the lake was consistent with the water volume, and the average annual runoff was approximately 14.04 km³. Precipitation in the lake area fluctuated at a rate of 0.28 mm·a^-1. Additionally, the average annual evaporation of the lake was about 17.95 km³, with a minimum of 16.10 km³ in 1987 and a maximum of 20.30 km³ in 2008. Moreover, (2) the groundwater and the lake supplemented each other, groundwater recharge was relatively high (about 1.91 km³) in the 1970s and 1980s. (3) At the lake scale, the change in runoff into the lake significantly correlated with the volume of Lake Balkhash and was the dominant factor of water volume change in Lake Balkhash. Furthermore, at the basin scale, the contribution of climate fluctuations to long-term changes in runoff to the lake was 71.67%, and the contribution of human activities was 28.33%. The contribution of Kapchagay reservoir establishment and the expansion of surrounding arable land from 1970 to 1985 to the sharp decline in water inflow to the lake was 47.47%. Finally, human activities have exacerbated the declining water levels in the lake during this period.