根据Climate Research Unite(CRU)1901—2013年最新0.5°×0.5°网格点的逐月潜在蒸散量和降水数据,运用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和小波分析法,探究了塔吉克斯坦过去113 a极端降水事件的特征及其区域差异。结果表明:① 过去113 a,塔吉克斯坦年、春季、秋季和冬季的极端降水事件都呈增加趋势,其增势分别为:0.33次·(10a)-1、0.15次·(10a)-1、0.07次·(10a)-1和 0.20次·(10a)-1,而夏季呈轻微的减少趋势;年和四季都发生了明显突变,且存在变化周期。② 东部的戈尔诺-巴达赫尚自治州年、春季、秋季和冬季的极端降水事件发生频次相对较高,哈特隆州西南部和索格特州西北地区极端降水事件发生频次相对较低;而夏季极端降水事件在戈尔诺-巴达赫尚自治州西部、索格特州的北部地区和哈特隆州的东部发生频次较高,在塔吉克斯坦最西部和东部则发生频次较低。在塔吉克斯坦的哈特隆州和中央直属区的东部,以及戈尔诺-巴达赫尚自治州的极端降水事件增势最为明显。
Changes in extreme precipitation events exert a huge impact on human beings, and it is of vital importance to study the regular patterns of meteorological and hydrological factors under climate change. Based on the monthly 0.5°×0.5° gridded evapotranspiration and precipitation data during the period of 1901-2013 from Climate Research Unite (CRU), the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Tajikistan was analyzed by the methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results are as follows:① The frequencies of annual, spring, autumn and winter extreme precipitation events were all in an increase trend with increase rates of 0.33 times·(10a)-1, 0.15 times·(10a)-1, 0.07 times·(10a)-1 and 0.20 times·(10a)-1respectively. The frequency of extreme precipitation events in summer was in a slight decrease trend. There were the obvious abrupt changes in frequencies of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events; ② The frequencies of annual, spring, autumn and winter precipitation extreme events were high in Gorno-Badakhshan but low in the northwestern region of Khatlon and the northern region of Leninabad. However, they were high in the western region of Gorno-Badakhshan, northern region of Leninabad and eastern region of Khatlon but low in the westernmost and eastern parts of Tajikistan. The extreme precipitation events were in a significant increase trend in the eastern region of Khatlon and Tadzhikista Territories. The significant increase of frequency of extreme precipitation events indicated that there was a significant humidification in Tajikistan under climate change. This paper can provide a reference for the research on the spatial and temporal variation of water resources and the management and planning of water resources in Tajikistan under global warming.
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