基于塔吉克斯坦46个气象站的数据,运用集合模态分解、趋势分析和小波分析等方法,对该国1971—2013年降水量和气温时空变化进行了研究。结果表明:① 时间变化上,年降水量和平均气温都呈增加趋势,其中,年降水量存在3 a、6 a、14 a和27 a的变化周期,平均气温存在3 a、7.5 a、12~13 a和32 a的变化周期。② 近43 a塔吉克斯坦平均年降水量大致呈自中部向四周逐渐减少的分布特征,在空间上增势明显,其平均降水量倾向率为15.2 mm·(10a)-1;降水量季节变化差异明显,春、夏、秋、冬四季降水量倾向率分别为-1.7 mm·(10a)-1、1.3 mm·(10a)-1、1.1 mm·(10a)-1和4.4 mm·(10a)-1;年代尺度降水量空间距平表明,1970s降水量最少,在1980s和1990s持续增加,并在2000s达到年代最大值。过去的43 a间塔吉克斯坦年平均气温在空间上随着海拔的增高逐渐降低,在变化趋势上,气温均呈增加趋势〔平均气温倾向率为0.26 ℃·(10a)-1〕且自南向北增幅逐渐增大。四季平均气温也呈增加趋势,增势从大到小依次为:冬季、春季、秋季、夏季。年代变化上,总体经历了低温期—高温期—低温期—高温期的变化过程,其中,1970s和1990s气温相对较低,1980s气温东部相对较低、西部相对较高,2000s气温相对较高,2001—2013年年平均气温比多年平均值高0.4~0.7 ℃。③ 塔吉克斯坦气温和降水呈明显的共振负相关。
This paper analyzes the spatial-temporal variations of precipitation and temperature using the data from 46 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2013 based on the methods of EEMD,trends analysis and wavelet analysis. The results showed that:① In temporal variations,the annual precipitation and average temperature all have increasing trend,annual precipitation presented periodicities of 3 a,6 a,14 a and 27 a,and temperature presented periodicities of 3 a,7.5 a,12-13 a and 32 a,respectively. ② In spatial variations,the annual precipitation was significantly increased at the tendency rate of 15.2 mm·(10a)-1,and the distribution characteristics of average annual precipitation were gradually reduced from the central to the borders. The change trend of seasonal precipitation presented significantly difference,at the rate of -1.7 mm·(10a)-1 (spring),1.3 mm·(10a)-1 (summer),1.1 mm·(10a)-1 (autumn) and 4.4 mm·(10a)-1 (winter),respectively. There was a decadal variation of precipitation: the annual precipitation was relatively low in the 1970s,kept increasing in the 1980s and 1990s,and achieved the maximum in the 2000s. The annual average temperature was significantly increased (average temperature tendency rate is 0.26 ℃·(10a)-1 and the tendency rate gradually increased from the south to north. The seasonal average temperature all showed increasing trend and the order of increasing from stronger to weaker is winter,spring,autumn and summer. The temperature experienced a period of “low-high-low-high” in the decadal variations; the average temperature was relatively low in the 1970s and 1990s,relatively low in the eastern but high in the western in 1980s,and relatively high in 2000s,and the average temperature from 2000 to 2013(0.4-0.7 ℃) is higher than that from 1971 to 2013. ③ The temperature and precipitation presents obvious resonance negative correlation in Tajikistan.
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