采用开都河流域大山口、焉耆水文气象站1960—2010年的观测资料,利用趋势分析、距平分析、多元回归以及线性拟合方法,分析了开都河中游、下游气温和降水变化特征,以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近50 a来,开都河流域气温总体呈上升趋势,其中大山口上升1.08 ℃,焉耆上升1.71 ℃。气温季节变化分析表明:焉耆冬季气温上升比夏季明显,大山口各季节气温变化差异不明显,总体呈上升趋势。降水年际波动较大,大山口站降水增加趋势显著,1998年降水达到50 a最大值。气温和降水对径流均有一定的影响,大山口以上相关性表现得比较明显,焉耆段相关性不强,总体上气温和降水与径流的变化均呈正相关关系。
Based on the data from Dashankou and Yanqi hydrometeorological stations in the Kaidu River Basin from 1960 to 2010, this study analyzed the features of the temperature and precipitation changes and the responses of the runoff to the climate change using trend analysis, anomaly analysis, multiple regression and linear fitting. The results showed that the temperature in Kaidu River Basin presented an increasing trend in general in recent fifty years. The temperature increased by 1.08 ℃ at Dashankou station and 1.71 ℃ at Yanqi station. The temperature increased in winter was obvious than the increase in summer at Yanqi station while no obvious seasonal variations at Dashankou station. The annual precipitation fluctuations were significant at both stations. The precipitation presented a significant increase at Dashankou station and achieved the fifty-year peak value in 1998. Both temperature and precipitation affected the runoff of Kaidu River. The correlation of the runoff with the temperature and the precipitation was obvious at the upper of the Dashankou station but not the part of the river in Yanqi County. In general, runoff variation had positive correlations with the temperature and the precipitation.
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