以系统分析法研究新疆能源消费、工业化、城市化、经济增长、固定资产投资的历史演变及特征,并采用动态计量经济模型,实证其之间的动态关系。结果显示:① 改革开放以来,新疆的能源消费分别与工业化、城市化、经济增长和固定资产投资存在着长期稳定的比例关系。② 能源消费与工业化互为格兰杰因果关系,能源消费与城市化不为格兰杰因果关系,经济增长和固定资产投资对能源消费存在单向的格兰杰因素。③ 新疆的工业化水平提升1个百分点,能源消费将增长0.565个百分点,能源消费增长1个百分点,工业化水平仅提升0.209个百分点;经济增长和固定资产投资水平提升1个百分点,能源消费将分别增长0.848个和0.571个百分点。当前新疆的工业化进程、经济增长、固定资产投资建设的有利条件仍是丰富的能源资源本底优势,如何保障本地能源消费的持续、有效、稳定供给以及能源的高效利用,将是关系到新疆区域经济长期稳定发展的基础性命题。
Energy consumption has complex relationships with economic growth, urbanization, industrialization and fixed assets investment (FAI) in different regions and different development stages. We demonstrated the above causal relationships with the co-integration test and Granger causality test, and then analyzed the dynamic process during 1978-2010. The conclusions are as follows: since the opening and reform, the energy consumption has kept a long and stable relationships with industrialization, urbanization, economic growth and FAI in Xinjiang; there is a Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and industrialization but not between energy consumption and urbanization while economic growth and FAI have a one-way Granger causality relationship with the energy consumption; Whenever the industrialization index increases by 1%, it will lead to a 0.565% increase of energy consumption. If the energy consumption increases by 1%, the industrialization index will increase by 0.209%. When economic growth and FAI increase by 1%, energy consumption will increase by 0.848% and 0.571% respectively. At the moment, the energy resources are the favorable conditions for industrialization, the economic development and the fixed assets investment in Xinjiang. It is a fundamental proposition on how to ensure the stable and sustainable local energy supply and effective energy utilization, which related to the long-term stable regional economic development in Xinjiang.
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