干旱区研究

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2014 , Vol. 31 >Issue 6: 1073 - 1077

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2014.06.14

气候变化

两种计算方案下新疆近50 a增温速率的比较

  • 陈鹏翔 ,
  • 毛炜峄 ,
  • 白素琴 ,
  • 段均泽 ,
  • 曹萌
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  • 新疆气候中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
陈鹏翔(1983-),男,硕士,工程师,现从事GIS在气候变化、气候资源等工作与相关研究. E-mail:cpx1860@163.com

收稿日期: 2013-12-25

  修回日期: 2014-04-11

  网络出版日期: 2014-11-25

基金资助

新疆维吾尔自治区气象局科研项目(201303)

收起

Rate of Temperature Increase in Recent 50 Years in Xinjiang

  • CHEN Peng-xiang ,
  • MAO Wei-yi ,
  • BAI Su-qing ,
  • DUAN Jun-ze ,
  • CAO Meng
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  • Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2013-12-25

  Revised date: 2014-04-11

  Online published: 2014-11-25

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摘要

利用新疆近50 a(1961—2010年)的89个测站平均气温数据,采用统计气象站点观测值方法和GIS空间化方法计算区域增温速率,并按海拔高度划分区域进行对比分析。结果表明:① 1951—2009 年,中国陆地表面年平均气温变暖速率为0.23 ℃·(10a)-1,中国西北地区增温速率为0.22 ℃·(10a)-1,新疆区域使用空间化后栅格点统计的增温速率为0.27 ℃·(10a)-1,而气象站直接统计的值为0.32 ℃·(10a)-1,相比之下空间化后增温速率更接近全国值。② 从近50 a新疆年平均气温变化趋势来看,使用空间化后,栅格点统计的年平均气温数据普遍低于气象站统计的气温数据。主要原因是气象站点的空间分布不合理,海拔1 500 m以上的区域占全疆面积的40.7%,而气象站点只占15.7%。③ 采用GIS手段,首先对数据进行空间化,再统计区域增温速率,要比直接统计气象站观测数据计算的增温速率更合理,这是因为空间化后的气温数据更多考虑了无人区域,而新疆地广人稀的特点,使得非气象站点数据对增温速率的贡献加大。

关键词： 空间化; 增温速率; 新疆

本文引用格式

陈鹏翔 , 毛炜峄 , 白素琴 , 段均泽 , 曹萌 . 两种计算方案下新疆近50 a增温速率的比较[J]. 干旱区研究, 2014 , 31(6) : 1073 -1077 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2014.06.14

Abstract

Based on the average temperatures from 89 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during the period from 1961 to 2010, the rate of the temperature increase was calculated by statistical method and counting GIS-based spatialization method. The results in different area were compared according to altitude. The results showed that ① the rate of the annual average temperature increase was 0.27 ℃·(10a)-1 and 0.32 ℃·(10a)-1 in Xinjiang calculated by GIS spatialization method and statistical method respectively while the rate of the ground surface temperature increase in mainland China was 0.23 ℃·(10a)-1 and 0.22 ℃·(10a)-1 in the northwestern China from 1951 to 2009. ② 15.7% of the weather stations were distributed in the areas with the altitude higher than 1 500 m, which accounted for 40.7% of Xinjiang. The rate of the annual average temperature increase by spatialization method is generally lower than the statistics from the climatic stations due to the uneven spatial distribution of the stations. ③ It’s more reasonable to use the GIS-based spatialization method rather than counting regional warming rate after GIS spatialization than the statistical GIS-based spatialization method included the data contributed from the areas without the weather stations. to analyze the rate of the temperature increase in Xinjiang because the icounting station data directly. Because the former method conciders landarea without human being more than the latter method, while meteorological station is ofter builded in anthropic zone. It’s especially important that the contribution of non-meteorological station data to the warming rate in Xinjiang which is a scarcely populated area.

Key words： spatialization; warming rate; Xinjiang

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