采用1960—2010年青海湖及周边地区的常规气象观测资料,分析青海湖流域极端天气气候的变化,并讨论此类变化对青海湖水位的可能影响。结果表明:青海湖流域年平均气温和极端气温呈增暖趋势,流域上游地区大风日数减少;流域年降水量有弱增加趋势,但降水日数减少,上游刚察站极端强降水发生频数增加且强度增强,出现降水集中;当年青海湖水位变化量与上年不同强度降水的累积量皆呈显著正相关关系,说明湖水水位受降水量的滞后影响。近年在降水集中化的作用下,水位变幅由负值转为正值,体现青海湖流域气候变化逐渐由“暖干”向“暖湿”化的方向发展。2004年以来湖水水位逐渐上升,为该地区水土保持、防风固沙和生态恢复起到积极作用。
The data of conventional meteorological observation in the Qinghai Lake Basin and at the peripheral meteorological stations during the period more than 50 years were used to analyze the changes of extreme weather and climate events including temperature, precipitation and wind speed. The potential impacts of these changes on the change of water level of the Qinghai Lake and natural environment were discussed. The results showed that the average annual temperature and the extreme temperature in the Qinghai Lake Basin were significantly increased. Annual days of strong wind were in a decrease trend in the upper reaches of the basin. Annual precipitation was slightly increased, but the days of precipitation were decreased. Especially the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation at Gangcha Meteorological Station in the upper reaches was increased. There was a significant positive correlation between the change of water level of the Qinghai Lake and the annual precipitation in previous year. Water level of the Qinghai Lake was changed from a negative balance to a positive one in recent years under the effect of warming-wetting climate change. The increase of precipitation had an active effect for water and soil conservation, reduction of wind speed, improvement of sand fixation and ecological regeneration in the basin.
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