干旱区研究

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2014 , Vol. 31 >Issue 4: 619 - 626

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2014.04.06

天气与气候

全球尺度的旱灾风险评价指标与模型研究进展

  • 尹圆圆 ,
  • 王静爱 ,
  • 黄晓云 ,
  • 雷永登
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  • 1.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875;
    2.北京师范大学区域地理研究重点实验室,北京 100875;
    3.地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京 100875;
    4.贵州大学经济学院,贵州 贵阳 550025
尹圆圆(1987-),女,博士研究生,主要从事全球变化和旱灾风险评估研究. E-mail:yyy4450437@163.com
王静爱. E-mail:jwang@bnu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2013-03-03

  修回日期: 2013-07-21

  网络出版日期: 2014-08-11

基金资助

国家重大科学研究计划(973)(2012CB955403);国家自然科学基金项目(41171402)

收起

Progress of Indices and Models of Drought Risk Assessment at Global Scale

  • YIN Yuan-yuan ,
  • WANG Jing-ai ,
  • HUANG Xiao-yun ,
  • LEI Yong-deng
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  • 1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography Research, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resources Ecology (Beijing Normal University), Beijing 100875, China;
    4. College of Economics, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, Guizhou, China

Received date: 2013-03-03

  Revised date: 2013-07-21

  Online published: 2014-08-11

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摘要

在气候变化背景下,全球旱灾发生频次呈增加趋势,潜在风险增大。旱灾风险评价作为防灾减灾的科学依据和基础,备受国内外风险科学工作者广泛重视。相比起步较早、较成熟的国家和区域尺度旱灾风险研究,全球尺度的旱灾风险研究才处于起步阶段。从全球旱灾研究的数据源和基本单元、评价指标、评估模型和相关案例等方面展开文献调研和综述。结果表明:旱灾风险评价指标研究呈现出多源数据融合和多因素综合的趋势;综合“孕灾环境—致灾因子—承灾体”三要素的定量化风险评估模型的构建是未来全球尺度旱灾风险研究的重要趋向;大小相对均一的政区矢量评价单元的编制,对正确认识我国旱灾风险在世界旱灾风险格局中的位置有重要意义。

关键词： 旱灾风险; 评价单元; 指标体系; 评估模型; 全球尺度

本文引用格式

尹圆圆 , 王静爱 , 黄晓云 , 雷永登 . 全球尺度的旱灾风险评价指标与模型研究进展[J]. 干旱区研究, 2014 , 31(4) : 619 -626 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2014.04.06

Abstract

In the context of climate change, the frequency and impact of drought at global scale is in an increase trend. As a scientific foundation and basis for disaster prevention and relief, the research on drought risk assessment has attracted widespread attention both at home and abroad. Drought risk assessment at national and regional scales started earlier and deeper, yet drought risk assessment at global scale is currently at the beginning stage. In this paper, a systemic review was carried out at the aspects of data sources, basic units, index system, risk assessment models, and case studies of global drought. Our findings indicated that a significant progress of drought risk assessment at national and regional scales has been achieved, which could provide the valuable references for drought risk research at global scale. With the development of quantitative study on drought hazard and socio-economic vulnerability assessment, drought risk research at global scale is currently in a holistic trend of multi-index integration with an increasing number of quantitative assessment models. The drought assessment indicators tend to be constructed based on a multi-source dataset and multi-factor integration. It is important to develop more quantitative models for drought risk assessment. It is of great significance to explore and work out a set of vector units. Future drought risk assessment at various spatiotemporal scales should be carried out based on the quantitative construction of vulnerability curves so as to provide more scientific references for drought risk governance all over the world.

Key words： drought risk; basic unit; index system; assessing model; global scale

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