根据我国北方63个代表站点（1961–1995）的气候资料,在分析了该地区近40年来气候变化现状的基础上,选用了合适的指标和计算方法,研究未来气候变化情景下,我国农牧交错带界限及其气候生产力的变化。研究结果表明,在降水不变,温度升高的情况下,现有的农牧交错带将东南移,范围扩大;同时气候生产力可能下降。而在温度升高、同时降水增加的气候情景下,农牧交错带的移动变缓,甚至不变,视降水的情况而定。降水增加能部分或完全补偿因温度引起的气候生产力的下降,气候生产力甚至有可能增加。降水是决定农牧交错带位置及其气候生产力的关键因素,但未来干热的气候趋势有可能使该地区的环境状况变得更为严峻。

In this paper,based on the climate data（1961–1995）,of63stations in northern China,and according to the climate analysis about40years,the impacts of climate change on the boundary and climatic potential productivity of the interlock area of farming–pastoral region were conducted by using proper boundary indexes and calculating methods.The result showed that in the future climate change scenarios （temperature increasing and precipitation unchanging）,the interlock area of farming–pastoral region will shift from the northwest to southeast,and the climate potential productivity will decrease.But if the temperature and precipitation increase at same time,the transfer of interlock area of farming–pastoral region will decrease,or keep unchanging.And the climatic potential productivity will increase.The precipitation is the key factor to determine the boundary and climatic potential productivity of interlock area of farming–pastoral region in northern China.