干旱区研究

干旱区研究 >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 8: 1394 - 1403

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.04

天气与气候

河西走廊东部极端降水时空变化特征

  • 杨晓玲 ,
  • 陈静 ,
  • 赵慧华 ,
  • 马中华 ,
  • 吴雯
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  • 1.武威国家气候观象台， 甘肃 武威 733099
    2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所， 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730020
杨晓玲（1971-），女，高级工程师，主要从事天气预报及气候变化研究工作. E-mail: wwqxj6150343@163.com
陈静. E-mail: 15720606226@163.com

收稿日期: 2025-03-14

  修回日期: 2025-05-25

  网络出版日期: 2025-11-24

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(42175192);国家自然科学基金(41775107);干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM202408)

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Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the eastern Hexi Corridor

  • YANG Xiaoling ,
  • CHEN Jing ,
  • ZHAO Huihua ,
  • MA Zhonghua ,
  • WU Wen
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  • 1. Wuwei National Climate Observation Platform, Wuwei 733099, Gansu, China
    2. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

Received date: 2025-03-14

  Revised date: 2025-05-25

  Online published: 2025-11-24

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摘要

利用1961—2023年河西走廊东部5个国家级自动气象站逐日降水观测数据，选取8个极端降水指数，采用反距离权重插值法、线性趋势法、Pearson相关系数法、余弦相似系数法，研究河西走廊东部极端降水的长期气候变化趋势，定性评估其他等级降水对总降水量的贡献。结果表明：（1） 河西走廊东部各极端降水指数总体由北向南递增，南部浅山区和高寒山区是各极端降水高值区。（2） 各极端降水指数随年代、年均呈增加趋势，总降水量、中雨及以上降水量和强降水量的气候倾向率大于其他降水指数。除中雨及以上降水强度外，其他极端降水指数增加趋势均很显著。（3） 总降水量与其他降水指数均呈显著正相关，其中总降水量与强降水量、中雨及以上降水量的相关系数远大于其他降水指数。总降水量与其他降水指数的变化趋势相似系数均超过了0.980，趋势相似度非常高。表明其他降水指数对总降水量均具有正贡献，强降水量、中雨及以上降水量对总降水量的贡献更大。

关键词： 极端降水指数; 变化特征; Pearson相关系数; 余弦相似系数; 河西走廊

本文引用格式

杨晓玲 , 陈静 , 赵慧华 , 马中华 , 吴雯 . 河西走廊东部极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(8) : 1394 -1403 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.04

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events have increased significantly with global climate warming, leading to serious floods and other natural disasters. Studying extreme precipitation events is conducive to providing forecasts and early warnings, predicting extreme precipitation, and assessing disaster prevention capacity. Using daily precipitation data from five meteorological stations in the eastern Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China during 1961-2023, various indices were used to first study the long-term trends of extreme precipitation with climate change in this region and then qualitatively evaluate the contribution of precipitation of different grades to total precipitation using the inverse distance weight interpolation method, linear tendency method, Pearson correlation coefficient, and cosine similarity coefficient. The results illustrated that: (1) Extreme precipitation indices increased from north to south in the eastern Hexi Corridor, and southern mountainous areas and alpine mountainous areas were identified as high value areas of extreme precipitation. (2) All extreme precipitation indices increased over time, and the climate tendency rates of total precipitation, moderate rain and above precipitation, and strong precipitation were greater than those of the other precipitation indices. The increases of the other extreme precipitation indices were significant, excluding the intensity of moderate rain and above precipitation. (3) Total precipitation exhibited significant positive correlations with the other precipitation indices, and strong precipitation and moderate rain and above precipitation exhibited greater correlation coefficients with total precipitation than did the other precipitation indices. The trend similarity coefficients between total precipitation and the other precipitation indices all exceeded 0.980. These findings indicate that various precipitation indices had positive contributions to total precipitation, with strong precipitation and moderate rain and above precipitation having greater contributions to total precipitation than the other indices.

Key words： extreme precipitation index; change characteristics; Pearson correlation; cosine similarity coefficient; Hexi Corridor

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