气候环境是生态健康、社会持续发展中不可控因素,而温度是维持气候系统稳定,提供人类宜居环境的重要条件。为明确宁夏地区平均气温与极端气温事件,运用线性倾向、小波分析、相关分析等,对宁夏1962—2015年平均气温和极端气温事件进行了分析。结果表明:1962年以来宁夏全区、北部、中部干旱带及南部山区以0.38 ℃·(10a)-1、0.42 ℃·(10a)-1、0.36 ℃·(10a)-1、0.38 ℃·(10a)-1速度增温;冷暖气温主要存在20～32 a、8～19 a、2～7 a的周期,主周期13 a和32 a,分别有8 a与20 a的次周期;极端低温事件频率、持续时长低于高温事件,低温四季增幅大于高温,且冬季变幅更为突出。平均气温和极端高温的升高会加大宁夏地区的干旱程度,加剧全区气候的不平衡性,极端低温指数的减少会增加农田、森林等的病虫害,使生态系统进一步恶化,应做好相应防御措施。
Climate environment is one of the most volatile factors in ecological health and sustainable social development.Temperature is important for maintaining the stability of climate system and providing a livable environment for human beings.In this study,the linear temperature trend,wavelet analysis and correlation analysis were used to analyze the change of average temperature and extreme temperature events in Ningxia during the period from 1962 to 2015.The results showed that the values of average temperature in whole Ningxia,the northern and central arid zones and the southern mountainous regions since 1962 were 0.38 ℃·(10a)-1,0.42 ℃·(10a)-1,0.36 ℃·(10a)-1 and 0.38 ℃·(10a)-1 respectively.There were the 20-32 a,8-19 a and 2-7 a periods of temperature fluctuation,and also the 8 a and 20 a sub-periods in the 13 a and 32 a main periods,respectively.The occurring frequency of extremely low temperature was lower than that of extremely high temperature,the duration of the former was shorter than that of the latter,the seasonal increase of low temperature was higher than that of high temperature,and the temperature fluctuation was the most significant in winter.The drought degree in Ningxia became more serious due to the increase of both average temperature and extremely high temperature,and the plant diseases and insect pests were increased because of the unbalanced climate change and the reduction of extremely low temperature,thus the ecosystems were further degenerated,so it is necessary to take some improvement measures.
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