干旱区研究

干旱区研究 >

2018 , Vol. 35 >Issue 3: 606 - 614

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.13

气候环境

1952—2013年吐鲁番市极端气温变化规律研究

  • 吕婷 ,
  • 武胜利 ,
  • 刘强吉 ,
  • 夏诗书 ,
  • 葛欢欢 ,
  • 李京龙
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  • 1.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    2.新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室,新疆师范大学,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    3.新疆师范大学继续教育学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
吕婷(1994-),女,硕士,主要从事干旱区环境演变与气候变化研究.E-mail:lvting0209@126.com
武胜利.E-mail:wushengli77@126.com

收稿日期: 2017-07-27

  修回日期: 2017-11-20

  网络出版日期: 2025-11-17

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(41161004);国家自然科学基金NSFC-新疆联合基金重点项目(U1138302);新疆干旱区环境与资源实验室基金项目(XJDX0909-2012-03);新疆干旱区环境与资源重点实验室基金项目(XJDX0909-2014-04)资助

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Variations of Extreme Temperature in Turpan City,Xinjiang during the Period of 1952-2013

  • LV Ting ,
  • WU Sheng-li ,
  • LIU Qiang-ji ,
  • XIA Shi-shu ,
  • GE Huan-huan ,
  • LI Jing-long
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  • 1. College of Geographical Science and tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;
    2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory for Lacustrine Environment and Resources in Arid Area,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;
    3. College of Adult Education,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China

Received date: 2017-07-27

  Revised date: 2017-11-20

  Online published: 2025-11-17

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摘要

根据吐鲁番国家地面气象基准站1952—2013年逐日最高、最低气温气象资料,利用线性拟合、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验、Morlet复小波和主成分分析等方法分析该地区极端气温变化特征,为当地农业的可持续发展与预防气象灾害提供参考。结果表明:① 极端最高气温、极端最低气温、夏日、热夜、暖夜、暖昼均呈上升趋势;冰日、霜日、冷夜、冷昼均呈下降趋势。② 极端最高气温无突变,极端最低气温突变年份为1984年;绝对指数的突变发生在20世纪80年代末90年代初和21世纪初;相对指数的突变发生在90年代末和21世纪初。③ 极端最高气温、极端最低气温的主周期为28～29 a,线性倾向率变化最大冷夜和暖夜具有12～29 a的主周期。④ 第一主成分占方差贡献率的50.63%,极端最低气温、热夜、霜日、冷夜、暖夜、冷昼、暖昼具有高载荷,表明这7个主成分对吐鲁番气温的升高起主要作用。总的来说,极端最高气温和极端最低气温都呈上升趋势,后者比前者的上升幅度更大,这对吐鲁番市在预防气象灾害方面具有实际意义。

关键词： 极端气温; 变化趋势; Mann-Kendall突变检验; Morlet复小波; 吐鲁番; 新疆

本文引用格式

吕婷 , 武胜利 , 刘强吉 , 夏诗书 , 葛欢欢 , 李京龙 . 1952—2013年吐鲁番市极端气温变化规律研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018 , 35(3) : 606 -614 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.13

Abstract

In this paper,the variations of 10 kinds of extreme temperature indices were analyzed based on the daily minimum and maximum temperatures at Turpan Weather Station during the period of 1952-2013 by using the linear method,moving average,Mann-Kendall test,Morlert wavelet analysis and principal component analysis.The results are as follows:① Six indices including the maximum and minimum air temperatures and the summer days,hot and warm nights and warm days were all in an increase trend with rates of 0.07 ℃·(10a)-1,1.31 ℃·(10a)-1,2.15 d·(10a)-1,5.15 d·(10a)-1,5.65 d·(10a)-1 and 2.04 d·(10a)-1,while the four indices including the ice days,frost days,cold nights and cold days were all in a decrease trend with rates of -0.61 d·(10a)-1,-5.49 d·(10a)-1,-6.09 d·(10a)-1 and -2.12 d·(10a)-1,respectively; ② The results of mutation analysis showed that there was no mutation of extreme maximum temperature,and the mutation of extreme minimum temperature occurred in 1984,while the mutations of absolute index occurred in the end 1980s,early 1990s and early 21st century,and the mutations of relative index happened in the end 1990s and the early 21st century; ③ There were about 28-29 a main recycles of maximum and minimum air temperatures,and about 12-29 a main recycles of cold and warm nights with high variable ratios;④ The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component accounted for 50.63% of the variance contribution rate,and the minimum air temperature,hot nights,frost days,cold nights,warm nights,cold days and cold nights affected significantly by the temperature change in Turpan.In general,both the highest and lowest temperatures in Turpan were in an increase trend,the latter increased more significantly than the former.The warming index increased but the cold index decreased significantly,the temperature in Turpan was in an increase trend,the change trend of extreme temperature in Turpan was consistent with the that in whole China and Xinjiang,the rangeabilities of summer days,frost days and hot nights were higher than those in whole Xinjiang and the extreme temperature index in China.The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and urbanization process were the main factors affecting the extreme temperature anomaly in Turpan,the hot and cold fluctuations were mainly caused by the extreme temperature events,which had an impact on the crop growth and yield,regional development,economic structure,and plant diseases and insect pests as well as the human activities and social sustainable development.The results could provide the theoretical basis for the sustainable development of local agriculture and for preventing meteorological disasters in Turpan.Because of the shortage of research sites,in this paper the change of extreme temperature indexes was analyzed just from the time scale rather than the spatial scale.

Key words： extreme temperature index; variation trend; Mann-Kendall test; Morlert wavelet analysis; Turpan City; Xinjiang

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