库木库里盆地夏季降水年际变化及其与大气环流的联系
收稿日期: 2025-03-11
修回日期: 2025-05-06
网络出版日期: 2025-10-22
基金资助
新疆“天山英才”青年科技拔尖人才专项(2022TSYCCX0005);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01B230);新疆气象局引导性计划项目(YD202207);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金项目(2021KJ034)
Interannual variability of summer precipitation over the Kumkol Basin and its dynamic association with atmospheric circulation
Received date: 2025-03-11
Revised date: 2025-05-06
Online published: 2025-10-22
库木库里盆地作为封闭性高海拔盆地，其降水是维系该区域生态系统最重要的水资源之一，由于盆地自然环境恶劣，气象观测匮乏，其降水演变特征尚不明晰。因此，本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）提供的第五代全球（ERA5）逐月降水及大气环流场资料，采用气候统计诊断方法，分析了1961—2023年库木库里盆地夏季降水年际变化及其大气环流特征。结果表明：（1） 库木库里盆地夏季降水呈由中部向四周递增的空间分布，表现出明显的海拔依赖性特征。近63 a夏季降水呈显著增加趋势，在盆地西北部库尔布彦山及南部阿尔喀山等高海拔区域增幅较大；（2） 库木库里盆地夏季降水所需的水汽主要由上游西风纬向输送，从盆地西边界输入，然而夏季降水年际异常与南边界的偏南水汽异常输送相联系，夏季降水异常偏多年盆地受偏东南方向水汽异常输入；（3） 库木库里盆地夏季降水与南亚高压位置有一定的联系，100 hPa南亚高压呈青藏（伊朗）高原型，500 hPa在中亚地区为异常气旋（反气旋）、在蒙古地区存在异常反气旋（气旋）的位势高度异常分布时，二者共同引导的异常偏东南风（西北风）向盆地输送，并且表现为异常上升（下沉）运动，有利于库木库里盆地夏季降水异常偏多（少）。本研究加深了对库木库里盆地夏季降水变化及其大气环流特征的认识，为高寒旱区封闭性盆地夏季降水预测提供参考依据。
迪丽努尔·托列吾别克 , 姚俊强 , 毛炜峄 , 姚梦莹 , 马丽云 . 库木库里盆地夏季降水年际变化及其与大气环流的联系[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(10) : 1766 -1776 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.02
The Kumkol Basin is a closed, high-altitude basin, and precipitation is an important water resource for maintaining the basin’s ecosystem. Owing to the harsh natural environment and the lack of meteorological observations in this area, the evolution characteristics of precipitation in the basin remain unclear. This study is based on the monthly precipitation and atmospheric circulation field data from the fifth-generation global climate atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and used climate statistical diagnostic methods to analyze the characteristics of summer precipitation and the circulation factors influencing its interannual variability in the Kumkol Basin from 1961 to 2023. The results were as follows: (1) Summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin exhibits a significant altitude-dependent characteristic, showing a spatial distribution pattern of increasing from the center toward the periphery. Over the past 63 years, summer precipitation has shown a significant increasing trend, with greater increases observed in high-altitude regions such as the Kulbuyan Mountains in the northwest and the Arka Mountains to the south of the basin. (2) The moisture required for summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin is primarily transported zonally by westerly winds from the upstream regions and enters through the western boundary of the basin. However, interannual anomalies of summer precipitation are associated with anomalous moisture transport from the southern boundary. (3) Summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin is associated with the position of the South Asian High. When the 100 hPa South Asian High exhibits a Tibetan (Iran) Plateau pattern, the 500 hPa level shows an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over Central Asia and an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over Mongolia. These circulation patterns jointly drive anomalous southeasterly (northwesterly) winds that transport moisture into the basin, and the entire troposphere exhibits anomalous ascending (descending) motion, which favors anomalously high (low) summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin. This study enhances the understanding of summer precipitation changes and their atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Kumkol Basin and provides a basis for predicting precipitation in closed basins in alpine and arid regions.
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