干旱区研究

干旱区研究 >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 5: 829 - 839

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.06

水土资源

基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例

  • 涂逸可 ,
  • 韩文光 ,
  • 张二东 ,
  • 李浩 ,
  • 任黎 ,
  • 李琼芳
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  • 1.河海大学水文水资源学院， 江苏 南京 210098
    2.河海大学， 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室， 江苏 南京 210098
    3.内蒙古河套灌区水利发展中心， 内蒙古 巴彦淖尔 015001
    4.长江保护与绿色发展研究院， 江苏 南京 210098
涂逸可（2001-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水文学及水资源. E-mail: tuyike927@163.com
李琼芳. E-mail: qfli@hhu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2025-01-14

  修回日期: 2025-03-30

  网络出版日期: 2025-10-22

基金资助

内蒙古自治区“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023JBGS0003);内蒙古自治区水利科技项目(NSK202201)

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Evaluation of water and soil resources carrying capacity based on the DPSIR-Cloud Model coupling: A case study of the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia

  • TU Yike ,
  • HAN Wenguang ,
  • ZHANG Erdong ,
  • LI Hao ,
  • REN Li ,
  • LI Qiongfang
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  • 1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
    3. Inner Mongolia Hetao Irrigation District Water Conservancy Development Center, Bayannur 015001, Inner Mongolia, China
    4. Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Green Development, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received date: 2025-01-14

  Revised date: 2025-03-30

  Online published: 2025-10-22

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摘要

水土资源承载力分析对合理开发利用水土资源和促进两者协调发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为研究对象，在DPSIR模型框架下构建包括驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个准则层的水土资源承载力指标体系，采用基于组合赋权法的云模型对灌区水土资源承载力进行综合评价，并运用障碍度模型诊断制约该地区水土资源承载力的主要障碍因子。研究发现：（1） 组合赋权法优化了指标综合权重计算，使评价结果更科学合理。（2） 2023年内蒙古黄河南岸灌区水土资源承载力处于平衡状态，表征水土系统与社会经济处于动态协调状态。（3） 各子系统的影响呈现显著异质性，驱动力子系统障碍度权重占比达33.19%，而响应子系统障碍度权重占比仅为4.43%。（4） 水土资源匹配系数是主要制约因素。应重点优化驱动力子系统指标，同时兼顾压力、状态和影响子系统指标的改进。本研究建立的DPSIR-云模型耦合方法为干旱区水土资源承载力评估提供了新的方法论框架，并对持续提高内蒙古黄河南岸灌区水土资源承载力具有参考价值。

关键词： 水土资源承载力; DPSIR模型; 云模型; 黄河南岸灌区

本文引用格式

涂逸可 , 韩文光 , 张二东 , 李浩 , 任黎 , 李琼芳 . 基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(5) : 829 -839 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.06

Abstract

The analysis of water and soil resources carrying capacity (WSRCC) is of significant theoretical and practical importance for the rational development and utilization of resources and promoting their coordinated development. This study focuses on the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia, China. Under the DPSIR model framework, a WSRCC evaluation index system was established, comprising five criterion layers: Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response. The WSRCC was comprehensively assessed using the cloud model based on a combination weighting method, and key obstacle factors were identified using an obstacle degree model. The results indicate that: (1) The combination weighting method optimizes the calculation of comprehensive indicator weights, enhancing the scientific accuracy of the evaluation results. (2) In 2023, the WSRCC in the irrigation area remained in a balanced state, reflecting a dynamically coordinated relationship between the water-soil system and socio-economic development. (3) The influence of each subsystem exhibits significant heterogeneity, with the obstacle degree weight of the Driving Force subsystem reaching 33.19%, while that of the Response subsystem is only 4.43%. (4) The water-soil resources matching coefficient is identified as the primary limiting factor. Thus, priority should be given to optimizing indicators within the Driving Force subsystem, while simultaneously improving those in the Pressure, State, and Impact subsystems. The DPSIR-cloud model coupling approach proposed in this study provides a novel methodological framework for WSRCC assessment in arid regions and offers valuable insights for enhancing the sustainable utilization of water and soil resources in the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River.

Key words： water and soil resources carrying capacity; DPSIR model; cloud model; the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River

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