干旱区研究

干旱区研究 >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 5: 775 - 787

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.01

天气与气候

1981—2020年新疆冬季区域极端低温事件的多时间尺度环流特征

  • 陈颖 ,
  • 刘精 ,
  • 邵伟玲 ,
  • 贾孜拉·拜山 ,
  • 田书婷
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  • 1.新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    2.中山大学大气科学学院， 广东 广州 510275
陈颖（1977-），女，硕士，正高级工程师，主要从事气候与气候变化研究. E-mail: meihuazui1206@qq.com
邵伟玲. E-mail: Shaowling@mail2.sysu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2025-03-07

  修回日期: 2025-04-15

  网络出版日期: 2025-10-22

基金资助

新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划课题(2023B02044-1);新疆气象局创新发展专项面上项目(MS202302)

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Multi-time scale circulation characteristics of extreme low-temperature events in Xinjiang during winter from 1981 to 2020

  • CHEN Ying ,
  • LIU Jing ,
  • SHAO Weiling ,
  • Jiazila BAISHAN ,
  • TIAN Shuting
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  • 1. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
    2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China

Received date: 2025-03-07

  Revised date: 2025-04-15

  Online published: 2025-10-22

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摘要

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候再分析数据（ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation，ERA5）逐日最低气温遴选了1981—2020年新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件，运用美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction，NCEP）的再分析资料分析了其多时间尺度环流特征。结果表明：（1） 1981—2020年共出现30次新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件，其中12月持续21 d以上的事件频次最高，持续时间最长。（2） 极端低温事件的平均气温、峰值日平均气温的偏低幅度与持续时间密切相关，持续时间越长，气温偏低幅度越大，其所在月（季）平均气温偏低幅度就越大。（3） 持续8~10 d和11 d以上的新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件分别在超前3 d和6 d时典型环流逐渐形成。持续11 d以上的极端低温事件在1月和2月出现时，北半球中高纬度表现为典型的北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation，AO）负位相。持续21 d以上的新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件出现时，北太平洋上空的500 hPa正位势高度距平中心较强，北半球中高纬度槽脊相对稳定。发展至强盛时，北太平洋上空的500 hPa正位势高度距平强大且稳定，能形成冷空气持续影响的形势。本研究可为冬季区域性极端低温事件的预测提供技术依据。

关键词： 极端低温事件; 多尺度环流; 北极涛动; 新疆

本文引用格式

陈颖 , 刘精 , 邵伟玲 , 贾孜拉·拜山 , 田书婷 . 1981—2020年新疆冬季区域极端低温事件的多时间尺度环流特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(5) : 775 -787 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.01

Abstract

This study identifies regional extreme cold events in Xinjiang during winters between 1981 and 2020 using ERA5 daily minimum temperature reanalysis data and analyzes their multi-timescale circulation characteristics with National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Results demonstrate that Xinjiang experienced 30 regional extreme cold events in winters during 1981-2020. Notably, events lasting >21 d in December exhibited the highest frequency and longest duration. The average and peak daily average temperature anomalies during these events were closely related to their duration—the longer the duration, the greater the temperature deviation and more pronounced negative temperature anomalies for the corresponding month (or season). When regional extreme cold events lasting >11 occurred in January or February, the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere exhibited a typical negative Arctic Oscillation phase. For events lasting >21 d strong positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly center formed over the North Pacific. Simultaneously, the stable trough-ridge pattern in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere facilitated the persistent influence of cold air. For events lasting 8-10 and >11 d, the characteristic circulation patterns gradually developed 3 and 6 d in advance, respectively. When events lasting >21 d reached their peak intensity, a robust and stable 500 hPa positive geopotential height anomaly over the North Pacific established a circulation pattern conducive to the sustained influence of cold air.

Key words： extreme low-temperature events; multi-scale circulation; Arctic Oscillation (AO); Xinjiang

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