[1] 吕爱锋,贾绍凤,燕华云,等.三江源地区融雪径流时间变化特征与趋势分析[J]. 资源科学,2009,31(10):1704-1709.
[Lü Aifeng,Jia Shaofeng,Yan Huayun,et al.Temporal variations and trend analysis of the snowmelt runoff timing across the source regions of the Yangtze River,Yellow River and Lancang River[J].Resources Science,2009,31(10):1704-1709.]
[2] 马艳,靳立亚,段炼,等.三江源湿地的退化对区域气候的影响[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,31(1):42-45.
[Ma Yan,Jin Liya,Duan Lian,et al.Impact of the wetland degeneracy in three-river source on regional climate model[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2011,31(1):42-45.]
[3] 赵洪宇,张雪芹,解承莹.多源水汽再分析资料在青藏高原的适用性评估[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(2):300-308.
[Zhao Hongyu,Zhang Xueqin,Xie Chengying.Applicability of reanalysis data of multi-source water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(2):300-308.]
[4] 王欢,李栋梁.黄河源区径流量变化特征及其影响因子研究进展[J].高原山地气象研究,2013,33(2):93-99.
[Wang Huan,Li Dongliang.Research progress on variations and effectors of the runoff in the source region of Yellow River[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2013,33(2):93-99.]
[5] 周长进,关志华.澜沧江(湄公河)正源及其源头的再确定[J].地理研究,2001,20(2):184-190.
[Zhou Changjin,Guan Zhihua.The source of Lancangjiang (Mekong) River[J].Geographical Research,2001,20(2):184-190.]
[6] 吴迪,赵勇,裴源生,等.澜沧江-湄公河流域温度和降水变化趋势分析[J].中国水利科学研究院学报,2011,9(4):304-312.
[Wu Di,Zhao Yong,Pei Yuansheng,et al.Variation trends of temperature and precipitation in Lancang-Mekong River Basin during 1980-2009[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2011,9(4):304-312.]
[7] Cook E R,Anchukaitis K J,Buckley B M,et al.Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium[J].Science,2010,328(5977):486-489.
[8] Yang B,Qin C,Huang K,et al.Spatial and temporal patterns of variations in tree growth over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the period AD 1450-2001[J].Holocene,2010,20:1235-1245.
[9] 秦宁生,时兴合,邵雪梅,等.川西高原树木年轮所指示的平均最高气温变化[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(4):18-24.
[Qin Ningsheng,Shi Xinghe,Shao Xuemei,et al.Average maximum temperature change recorded by tree rings in West Sichuan Plateau[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2008,28(4):18-24.]
[10] 程雪寒,吕利新.藏东南树木年轮记载的公元1560年以来的极端干旱事件[J].第四纪研究,2015,35(5):1093-1101.
[Cheng Xuehan,Lü Lixin.Extreme drought events since 1560 A.D.recorded by tree rings on the southeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Quaternary Sciences,2015,35(5):1093-1101.]
[11] 秦宁生,邵雪梅,靳立亚,等.青海南部高原圆柏年轮指示的近500年来气候变化[J].科学通报,2003,48(19):2068-2072.
[Qin Ningsheng,Shao Xuemei,Jin Liya,et al.Climate change over southern Qinghai Plateau in the past 500 years recorded in Sabina tibetica tree rings[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):2068-2072.]
[12] Gou X,Chen F,Cook E,et al.Streamflow variations of the Yellow River over the past 593 years in western China reconstructed from tree-rings[J].Water Resource Research,2007,43: W6434.
[13] 秦宁生,靳立亚,时兴合,等.利用树轮资料重建通天河流域518年径流量[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):550-556.
[Qin Ningsheng,Jin Liya,Shi Xinghe,et al.A 518-year runoff reconstruction of Tongtian River basin using tree-ring width chronologies[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(4):550-556.]
[14] 时兴合,秦宁生,邵雪梅,等.青海杂多圆柏年轮指示的近700年旱涝变化[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):769-776.
[Shi Xinghe,Qin Ningsheng,Shao Xuemei,et al.The drought and flood signals in recent 700 years indicated by long tree-rings of Sabina Tibetica in Zaduo of Qinghai Province[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(4):769-776.]
[15] Ye M L,Qin N S,Bai A J,et al.Tree ring width records of maximum temperature in April-June on source region of Yangtze River from 1470 to 2009[J].Quaternary Sciences,2015,35(5):1102-1111.
[16] Xiao D M,Shao X M,Qin N S,et al.Tree-ring-based reconstruction of streamflow for the Zaqu River in the Lancang River source region,China,over the past 419 years[J].Internatial Journal of Biometeorology,2017,61(7):1173-1189.
[17] 肖丁木,秦宁生,黄小梅.树轮记录的长江源区近412年以来3—5月降水量变化[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1691-1700.
[Xiao Dingmu,Qin Ningsheng,Huang Xiaomei.A 412-year March-May precipitation series reconstructed from tree-ring records in the source regions of Yangtze River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(6):1691-1700.]
[18] Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,López-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23:1696-1718.
[19] Wang L,Chen W.Applicability analysis of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in drought monitoring in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(2):423-431.
[20] Allen K J,Ogden J,Buckley B M,et al.The potential to reconstruct broad scale climate indices associated with Southeast Australian droughts from Athrotaxis species,Tasmania[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,37(9-10):1799-1821.
[21] Vicente-Serrano S M,Lopez-Moreno J I,Lorenzo-Lacruz J,et al.The NAO impact on droughts in the Mediterranean Region[J].Hydrological,Socioeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Mediterranean Region,2011,46:23-40.
[22] Bao G,Liu Y,Liu N,et al.Drought variability in Eastern Mongolian Plateau and its linkages to the large-scale climate forcing[J].Climate Dynamics,2015,44:717-733.
[23] Chen F,Yuan Y,Yu S,et al.A 225-year long drought reconstruction for east Xinjiang based on Siberia larch (Larix sibirica) tree-ring widths: Reveals the recent dry trend of the eastern end of Tien Shan[J].Quaternary International,2015,358:42-47.
[24] Gou X,Deng Y,Gao L,et al.Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains,Northwest China[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,45(7-8):1761-1770.
[25] The Editing Committee of Forest.Forest in Qinghai[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,1993:240-245.
[26] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:1-275.
[Wei Fengying.Modern Weather Forecasting Techniques and Statistical Diagnosis[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999:1-275.]
[27] Kohler M A.On the use of double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of meteorological record sand for making required adjustment[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1949,30:188-189.
[28] Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-Ring Bulletin,1983,43:69-78.
[29] Cook E R.A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree-ring Standardization[D].Tucson: University of Arizona,1985.
[30] Fang K Y,Gou X H,Peters K,et al.Removing biological trends from tree-ring series: Testing modified hungeshoff curves[J].Tree-ring Research,2010,66:51-59.
[31] VFritts H C.Tree Ring and Climate[M].London:Academic Press,1976:1-567.
[32] Fan Z X,Brauning A,Cao K F.Tree-ring based drought reconstruction in the Hengduan Mountains Region (China) since A.D.1655[J].International Journal of Climatology,2008,28:1879-1887.
[33] Zhang Q B,Cheng G D,Yao T D,et al.A 2326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(14):1739.
[34] 肖丁木,秦宁生,黄小梅.利用树轮资料重建黄河源区曲什安河1505—2010年流量变化[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(2):372-383.
[Xiao Dingmu,Qin Ningsheng,Huang Xiaomei.Tree-ring based streamflow reconstruction for the Qushian River of Yellow River source region from 1505 to 2010[J].Journal of Desert Research,2017,37(2):372-383.]
[35] 白虎志,董安祥,郑广芬,等.中国西北地区近500年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:211-223.
[Bai Huzhi,Dong Anxiang,Zheng Guangfen,et al.Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in Northwest China for the Last 500-year Period[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2010:211-223.]
[36] Mann M E,Lees J M.Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series[J].Climatic Change,1996,33(3):409-445.
[37] Tourre Y M,Rajagopalan B,Kushnir Y,et al.Patterns of coherent decadal and interdecadal climate signals in the Pacific Basin during the 20th century[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(10):2069-2072.
[38] Hale G E.Preliminary results of an attempt to detect the general magnetic field of the sun[J].Astrophysical Journal,1913,38(1):27-98.
[39] Allan R,Lindesay J,Parker D.El Niño Southern Oscillation & Climatic Variability[M].Australia: CSIRO Publishing,1998:405.
[40] 邢佩.青藏高原树轮气候重建与中国东部树种的树轮气候学评价——以青海三江源、西藏昌都和浙江古田山地区为例[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2013.
[Xing Pei.Climate Reconstruction on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Based on Tree Ring and Dendroclimatological Evaluation of Tree Species in Eastern China:A Case Study in Sanjiangyuan Region of Qinghai,Changdu Prefecture of Tibet and Gutian Mountain of Zhejiang[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013.]
[41] Gou X H,Chen F H,Cook E,et al.Streamflow variations of the Yellow River over the past 593 years in Western China reconstructed from tree rings[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43 (6):1820-1830.
[42] 黄小梅,肖丁木,秦宁生.大果圆柏树轮记录的公元1606—2012年长江源区4—6月帕尔默干旱指数变化[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(4):784-792.
[Huang Xiaomei,Xiao Dingmu,Qin Ningsheng.Palmer Drought Severity Index in April-June reconstruction based on Juniper Tibetica tree-ring during 1606-2012 in the Yangtze River source region[J].Journal of Desert Research,2017,37(4):784-792.]
[43] 吕爱锋,贾绍凤,王素慧,等.PDO和ENSO指数与三江源地区径流变化的相关关系研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(2):49-52.
[Lü Aifeng,Jia Shaofeng,Wang Suhui,et al.Relationship between streamflow in Sanjiangyuan and the indices of ENSO and PDO[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2010,8(2):49-52.]
[44] 刘青春,秦宁生,靳力亚,等.三江源地区春夏季降水与太平洋海温的关系[J].气象科技,2007,35(3):335-339.
[Liu Qingchun,Qing Ningsheng,Jin Liya,et al.Relationship between spring and summer rainfall in three-river source region and Pacific SST[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(3):335-339.]
[45] 张平,陈碧辉,毛晓亮.青藏高原东侧降水与印度洋海温的遥相关特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2):15-21.
[Zhang Ping,Chen Bihui,Mao Xiaoliang.The teleconnection characteristics between the precipitation on the east side of Tibetan Plateau and Indian ocean SST[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2008,28(2):15-21.]
[46] 肖贻青,王健,姚静.西安地区近五百年旱涝变化趋势与近百年旱涝成因分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(6):1448-1456.
[Xiao Yiqing,Wang Jian,Yao Jing.Trends of drought and flood in recent 500 years and their causes in recent 100 years in Xi’an[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(6):1448-1456.]
[47] Smith T M,Reynolds R W.Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997)[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17(12):2466-2477.
[48] Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(9):1517-1536.
[49] 周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):274-290.
[Zhou Liantong,Huang Ronghui.Research on the characteristics of interdecadal variability of summer climate in China and its possible cause[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2003,8(3):274-290.]
