工业是实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键领域，而现有研究对工业碳排放生态足迹的时空动态演变及其对生态系统的多尺度影响缺乏系统性研究。本研究基于三维生态足迹模型，核算2000—2021年中国30个省（市、区）的工业碳足迹，揭示其时空动态演变特征并评估区域减排潜力，结果表明：（1） 中国工业碳足迹呈现出显著的时空差异，反映出区域产业结构和能源消耗模式的差异，中西部地区因承接高耗能产业，排放压力持续增大，东部地区则有所改善。（2） 碳汇流量和存量资源在不同区域间存在互补性，但整体存在失衡，部分地区碳汇资源面临超载风险。（3） 工业碳足迹广度与深度均呈现出显著的空间正相关性，且随着时间推移集聚效应不断增强，呈现内陆化、片区化、边缘化迁移趋势，揭示工业碳排放梯度转移特征。（4） 不同区域的碳减排特征和潜力存在显著差异，东部地区减排潜力较大，中西部地区则需重点关注碳汇资源的可持续利用。本研究从生态学视角揭示了工业碳排放与生态系统承载力之间的动态关系，提出基于区域差异的差异化减排策略，为构建低碳工业发展与生态保护协同治理模式提供科学依据。

Industry is the key field to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, but the existing research on the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of industrial carbon emissions' ecological footprint and its multi-scale impact on the ecosystem is lack of systematic research. Based on the Three dimensional Ecological Footprint Model, this study calculates the industrial carbon footprint of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, reveals its temporal and spatial dynamic evolution characteristics, and evaluates the regional emission reduction potential. Key findings include: (1) China's industrial carbon footprint exhibits significant spatiotemporal variations, reflecting regional disparities in industrial structure and energy consumption patterns. Central and western regions face mounting emission pressures due to absorbing relocated energy-intensive industries, while eastern regions show improvements. (2) Carbon sink stocks and flows demonstrate regional complementarity but exhibit overall imbalance, with certain areas confronting overloading risks to carbon sequestration resources. (3) Both size and depth of industrial carbon footprints display increasing spatial autocorrelation over time, with agglomeration effects intensifying. Their spatial redistribution trends (inland shift, clustered distribution, and peripheral relocation) reveal gradient transition dynamics of industrial carbon emissions. (4) Carbon reduction characteristics and potentials vary substantially across regions, eastern regions possess greater mitigation potential, whereas central/western regions require prioritized focus on sustainable utilization of carbon sink resources. This study reveals the dynamic relationship between industrial carbon emissions and ecosystem carrying capacity from the perspective of ecology, and proposes differentiated emission reduction strategies based on regional differences, which provides a scientific basis for the construction of low-carbon industrial development and ecological protection collaborative governance model.