干旱区研究

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2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 7: 1257 - 1268

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.09

植物生态

气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估

  • 严应存 ,
  • 孙树娇 ,
  • 余迪 ,
  • 高贵生
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  • 1.青海省气象科学研究所，青海 西宁 810001
    2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海 西宁 810001
    3.青海省气候中心，青海 西宁 810001
    4.青海省海北牧业气象试验站，青海 海北 810200
严应存（1974-），女，正研级高级工程师，主要从事农业气象研究与服务工作. E-mail: yanyingcun@sohu.com

收稿日期: 2024-07-24

  修回日期: 2025-04-08

  网络出版日期: 2025-07-07

基金资助

青海省科技厅项目(2021-ZJ-611)

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Impact and trend estimation of climate change on vegetation greenness in the Qaidam Basin

  • YAN Yingcun ,
  • SUN Shujiao ,
  • YU Di ,
  • GAO Guisheng
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  • 1. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    2. Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    3. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    4. Haibei Livestock Experiment Weather Station, Haibei 810200, Qinghai, China

Received date: 2024-07-24

  Revised date: 2025-04-08

  Online published: 2025-07-07

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摘要

探究柴达木盆地植被绿度变化气候影响定量预评估，有助于统筹推进山水林田湖草沙气一体化保护和系统治理。本文基于MODIS NDVI数据、气象数据、气候变化预估数据集，监测了2000—2023年柴达木盆地NDVI≤0.3的植被绿度变化，分析了不同绿度植被气候驱动因素，预估了未来不同绿度植被变化趋势。结果表明：近24 a来，柴达木盆地Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ植被分别占低绿度植被的49.33%、19.81%、30.86%，其中植被面积Ssum、SⅠ、SⅡ极显著减少（P<0.001），SⅢ极显著增加，植被明显趋好；水热条件对低绿度植被的降水影响2~3 a、气温5 a的累积效应显著（P<0.01）大于当年，暖湿化气候促进草地良性发展；未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种排放情景下，柴达木盆地低绿度植被总体呈减少趋势，未来气候条件有利于植被恢复和扩展。该研究结果可为柴达木盆地生态环境保护和荒漠化治理措施的制定提供科学依据。

关键词： 气候变化; 植被绿度; 气候模拟模型; 趋势预估; 柴达木盆地

本文引用格式

严应存 , 孙树娇 , 余迪 , 高贵生 . 气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(7) : 1257 -1268 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.09

Abstract

Exploring the quantitative pre assessment of the climate impact of vegetation greenness changes in the Qaidam Basin can help promote the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains, waters, forests, fields, lakes, grasses, sands, and gases. This article is based on MODIS NDVI data, meteorological data, and climate change prediction datasets. It monitors the changes in vegetation greenness with NDVI ≤ 0.3 in the Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2023, analyzes the climate driving factors of vegetation with different greenness, and predicts the future trends of vegetation changes with different greenness. The results showed that in the past 24 years, vegetation types Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ in the Qaidam Basin accounted for 49.33%, 19.81%, and 30.86% of low green vegetation, respectively. Among them, the vegetation areas of Ssum, SⅠ, and SⅡ decreased significantly (P<0.001), while the vegetation area of SⅢ increased significantly, indicating a clear improvement in vegetation quality; The cumulative effect of water and heat conditions on precipitation of low green vegetation for 2-3 years and temperature for 5 years is significantly (P<0.01) greater than that of the current year, indicating that a warm and humid climate promotes the healthy development of grasslands; Under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in the future, the overall trend of low green vegetation in the Qaidam Basin is decreasing, and future climate conditions are favorable for vegetation restoration and expansion. The research results can provide scientific basis for the development of ecological environment protection and desertification control measures in the Qaidam Basin.

Key words： climate change; vegetation greenness; climate simulation model; trend estimation; Qaidam Basin

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