关中平原极端降水时空变化及其与大气环流的关系

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于关中平原13个气象站1957—2019年逐日降水资料,运用一元线性回归、Pearson相关分析和小波相干分析等方法,计算各极端降水指数,分析其时空变化特征,探讨极端降水与大气环流的关系。结果表明：（1）在时间上,除极端降水强度以0.007 mm·d^-1·(10a)^-1速率的上升外,其他极端降水指数均呈下降趋势,其中年均极端降水总量（PRCPTOT）下降最快,下降速率为-5.528 mm·(10a)^-1,并且各极端降水指数均无显著突变点。（2）在空间上,极端降水指数南高北低,空间差异显著。（3）反映大气环流的南方涛动指数（SOI）对极端降水影响最为显著。SOI越大,关中平原越易出现少雨现象。本研究可为关中平原洪水灾害防治提供科学理论依据。

关键词: 关中平原, 极端降水, 时空变化, 大气环流

Abstract:

Based on daily precipitation data collected from 13 meteorological stations in the Guanzhong Plain in 1957-2019, the extreme precipitation indices were calculated and their spatial-temporal variation characteristics were analyzed. Specifically, the correlation between extreme precipitation and atmospheric general circulation was explored using a unitary linear regression method, Pearson correlation analysis, and wavelet coherence analysis. The results showed the following. (1) Extreme precipitation intensity showed an increasing trend at a rate of 0.007 mm·d^-1·(10a)^-1, whereas other extreme precipitation indices showed a decreasing trend in which the annual total extreme precipitation showed the most pronounced decreased with a rate of -5.528 mm·(10a)^-1. Additionally, none of the extreme precipitation indices had a significant mutation point. (2) The extreme precipitation indices were higher in the south and lower in the north, with a significant spatial difference detected. (3) Only the southern oscillation index (SOI) had a significant effect on extreme precipitation. The larger the SOI value, the more likely it was to rain less on the Guanzhong Plain. These results provide a theoretical basis for flood disaster prevention and control on the Guanzhong Plain.

Key words: Guanzhong Plain, extreme precipitation, spatial-temporal variation, atmospheric circulation

丁莹莹,邱德勋,吴常雪,穆兴民,高鹏. 关中平原极端降水时空变化及其与大气环流的关系[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 104-112.

DING Yingying,QIU Dexun,WU Changxue,MU Xingmin,GAO Peng. Spatial-temporal variations in extreme precipitation and their relationship with atmospheric circulation in the Guanzhong Plain[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 104-112.

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极端降水指数	名称	单位	意义和说明
CWD	持续湿期	d	日降水量>1 mm的最大持续日数
SDII	日降水强度	mm·d^-1	降水总量与有雨日数之比（日降水量≥1 mm）
PRCPTOT	降水总量	mm	日降水量>1 mm的年累积降水量
R10mm	中雨日数	d	日降水量≥10 mm的总日数
RX1day	最大1日降水量	mm	每年最大日降水量
RX5day	连续5日最大降水量	mm	每年连续5日最大降水量

	CWD/d	PRCPTOT/mm	R10mm/d	RX1day/mm	RX5day/mm	SDII/（mm·d^-1）
多年均值	7.87	513.36	14.35	29.4	61.47	5.58
最大值	17	765.6	23	45.07	108.79	7.3
最小值	4	332.6	7	17.41	35.74	4.6
最大值出现年份	2007	1964	1983	2010	2003	1983
最小值出现年份	1995、2004、2012	1997	1997	1987	1987	1977、2015

指数	上升趋势站点个数	占比/%	下降趋势站点个数	占比/%
CWD	2	15.4	11	84.6
PRCPTOT	4	30.8	9	69.2
R10mm	1	7.7	12	92.3
RX1day	10	76.9	3	23.1
RX5day	6	46.2	7	53.8
SDII	11	84.6	2	15.4

	CWD	PRCPTOT	R10mm	RX1day	RX5day	SDII
CWD	1
PRCPTOT	0.320^*	1
R10mm	0.242	0.875^**	1
RX1day	-0.073	0.319^*	0.289^*	1
RX5day	0.296^*	0.488^**	0.478^**	0.482^**	1
SDII	0.143	0.748^**	0.806^**	0.443^**	0.547^**	1

月份		CWD	PRCPTOT	R10mm	RX1day	RX5day	SDII
AMO	1—3	0.030	0.100	0.120	0.131	0.052	0.246
	4—6	-0.072	0.038	0.094	0.136	0.020	0.234
	7—9	-0.064	-0.044	0.027	0.125	0.059	0.139
	10—12	-0.008	-0.001	0.050	0.172	0.034	0.193
AO	1—3	-0.059	0.013	0.004	-0.042	-0.074	-0.120
	4—6	0.067	0.192	0.034	-0.089	0.010	-0.033
	7—9	-0.019	0.131	0.093	0.121	0.080	0.028
	10—12	-0.044	0.070	0.068	-0.013	-0.070	0.020
NAO	1—3	-0.162	-0.139	-0.103	-0.082	-0.126	-0.155
	4—6	-0.141	0.088	-0.100	-0.143	-0.145	-0.079
	7—9	0.070	0.092	0.026	-0.004	0.044	0.045
	10—12	-0.014	-0.016	-0.061	-0.188	-0.134	-0.108
NP	1—3	0.042	-0.107	-0.133	-0.164	-0.101	-0.276^*
	4—6	0.063	0.208	0.149	0.073	0.048	-0.004
	7—9	0.008	0.090	0.027	0.052	-0.043	0.023
	10—12	-0.077	0.230	0.193	0.262^*	0.056	0.270^*
PDO	1—3	-0.022	0.183	0.136	-0.014	0.001	0.149
	4—6	-0.153	0.004	0.001	-0.004	-0.036	0.120
	7—9	-0.162	-0.133	-0.133	-0.249^*	-0.101	-0.123
	10—12	-0.185	-0.195	-0.188	-0.216	-0.119	-0.151
WP	1—3	-0.062	0.103	0.143	0.032	0.053	0.088
	4—6	0.058	-0.066	-0.093	-0.200	0.026	-0.172
	7—9	0.064	0.033	-0.078	0.014	0.048	-0.102
	10—12	-0.006	-0.069	-0.068	-0.157	0.028	0.016
SOI	1—3	0.059	-0.237	-0.257^*	-0.165	-0.131	-0.425^**
	4—6	0.294^*	0.359^**	0.354^**	0.261^*	0.202	0.249^*
	7—9	0.149	0.393^**	0.412^**	0.275^*	0.159	0.356^**
	10—12	0.230	0.332^**	0.324^**	0.285^*	0.167	0.370^**